Examination of property forecasting models - accuracy and its improvement through combination forecasting

Abstract

This paper investigates property forecasting accuracy and its improvement. The research suggests that despite increased sophistication of property market modelling and forecasting, there still remains a degree of inaccuracy between model outputs and actual property market performance. Subsequently, the paper presents the principle of combination forecasting as a medium helping to achieve greater predictive outcomes. The research implements combination forecasting principle. It then assesses whether combination forecasts from different forecasting techniques are better than single model outputs. It examines which of them -combination or single forecast -fits the UK property market better, and which of these options forecasts best.