Examination of Convection-Allowing Configurations of the WRF Model for the Prediction of Severe Convective Weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004

Kain, John S.; Weiss, Steven J.; Levit, Jason J.; Baldwin, Michael E.; Bright, David R.

doi:10.1175/waf906.1

Cited by 206 publications

(141 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…In numerical weather prediction (NWP) convection resolving models are already widely used for operational forecasts and research purposes (e.g., Mass et al 2002;Kain et al 2006;Schwartz et al 2009;Gebhardt et al 2011). According to Weisman et al (1997) the critical horizontal grid spacing for CPCSs is *4 km.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations

et al. 2013

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In this study the added value of a ensemble of convection permitting climate simulations (CPCSs) compared to coarser gridded simulations is investigated. The ensemble consists of three non hydrostatic regional climate models providing five simulations with *10 and *3 km (CPCS) horizontal grid spacing each. The simulated temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and global radiation fields are evaluated within two seasons (JJA 2007 and DJF 2007-2008 in the eastern part of the European Alps. Spatial variability, diurnal cycles, temporal correlations, and distributions with focus on extreme events are analyzed and specific methods (FSS and SAL) are used for indepth analysis of precipitation fields. The most important added value of CPCSs are found in the diurnal cycle improved timing of summer convective precipitation, the intensity of most extreme precipitation, and the size and shape of precipitation objects. These improvements are not caused by the higher resolved orography but by the explicit treatment of deep convection and the more realistic model dynamics. In contrary improvements in summer temperature fields can be fully attributed to the higher resolved orography. Generally, added value of CPCSs is predominantly found in summer, in complex terrain, on small spatial and temporal scales, and for high precipitation intensities.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations

et al. 2013

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“…are better reproduced (e.g. Kain et al, 2006). However, it is not easy to prove the value of mesoscale forecasts using traditional verification statistics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fuzzy verification of high‐resolution gridded forecasts: a review and proposed framework

Ebert

2008

Meteorological Applications

382

290

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High-resolution forecasts from numerical models can look quite realistic and provide the forecaster with very useful guidance. However, when verified using traditional metrics they often score quite poorly because of the difficulty of predicting an exact match to the observations at high resolution. 'Fuzzy' verification rewards closeness by relaxing the requirement for exact matches between forecasts and observations. The key to the fuzzy approach is the use of a spatial window or neighbourhood surrounding the forecast and/or observed points. The treatment of the data within the window may include averaging (upscaling), thresholding, or generation of a PDF, depending on the particular fuzzy method used and its implicit decision model concerning what makes a good forecast. The size of the neighbourhood can be varied to provide verification results at multiple scales, thus allowing the user to determine at which scales the forecast has useful skill.This article describes a framework for fuzzy verification that incorporates several fuzzy verification methods. It is demonstrated on a high-resolution precipitation forecast from the United Kingdom (UK) and the results interpreted to show the additional information that can be gleaned from this approach.

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“…With the growing computing power, it is anticipated that the horizontal grid space in operational NWP models, perhaps even global models will be a few kilometers within a decade (Liu and Moncrieff, 2007). The high-resolution 3-6 km grid spacing simulations of precipitation using convection allowing configuration showed good promise (Done et al, 2004;Liu et al, 2006;Kain et al, 2006Kain et al, , 2008Moncrieff and Liu, 2006;Trier et al, 2006;Lean et al, 2008). There are several reasons for better performance by the high-resolution models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sensitivity of WRF cloud microphysics to simulations of a severe thunderstorm event over Southeast India

et al. 2010

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Abstract. In the present study, we have used the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the features associated with a severe thunderstorm observed over Gadanki (13.5 • N, 79.2 • E), over southeast India, on 21 May 2008 and examined its sensitivity to four different microphysical (MP) schemes (Thompson, Lin, WSM6 and Morrison). We have used the WRF model with three nested domains with the innermost domain of 2 km grid spacing with explicit convection. The model was integrated for 36 h with the GFS initial conditions of 00:00 UTC, 21 May 2008. For validating simulated features of the thunderstorm, we have considered the vertical wind measurements made by the Indian MST radar installed at Gadanki, reflectivity profiles by the Doppler Weather Radar at Chennai, and automatic weather station data at Gadanki.There are major differences in the simulations of the thunderstorm among the MP schemes, in spite of using the same initial and boundary conditions and model configuration. First of all, all the four schemes simulated severe convection over Gadanki almost an hour before the observed storm. The DWR data suggested passage of two convective cores over Gadanki on 21 May, which was simulated by the model in all the four MP schemes. Comparatively, the Thompson scheme simulated the observed features of the updraft/downdraft cores reasonably well. However, all the four schemes underestimated strength and vertical extend of the updraft cores. The MP schemes also showed problems in simulating the downdrafts associated with the storm. While the Thompson scheme simulated surface rainfall distribution closer to observations, the other three schemes overestimated observed rainfall. However, all the four MP schemes simulated the surface wind variations associated with the thunderstorm reasonably well. The model simulated reflectivityCorrespondence to: M. Rajeevan (rajeevan@narl.gov.in) profiles were consistent with the observed reflectivity profile, showing two convective cores. These features are consistent with the simulated condensate profiles, which peaked around 5-6 km. As the results are dependent on initial conditions, in simulations with different initial conditions, different schemes may become closer to observations. The present study suggests not only large sensitivity but also variability of the microphysical schemes in the simulations of the thunderstorm. The study also emphasizes the need for a comprehensive observational campaign using multi-observational platforms to improve the parameterization of the cloud microphysics and land surface processes over the Indian region.

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Examination of Convection-Allowing Configurations of the WRF Model for the Prediction of Severe Convective Weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004

Cited by 206 publications

References 28 publications

Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations

Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations

Fuzzy verification of high‐resolution gridded forecasts: a review and proposed framework

Sensitivity of WRF cloud microphysics to simulations of a severe thunderstorm event over Southeast India

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