Ex Post Impact Assessment of Master Plans—The Case of Shenzhen in Shaping a Polycentric Urban Structure

Abstract

This study of ex post impact assessment aims to review the lessons learned from the implementation of previous master plans in the case study city of Shenzhen (China) in order to provide evidence-based input for the possible integration of impact assessment in future master planning in Shenzhen and other world cities, particularly in developing and emerging countries. The paper uses GIS data to derive maps for the visualization of spatial developmental patterns with complementary quantitative analysis for the spatial-temporal impact assessment. The ex post impact assessment shows that the master plans of Shenzhen have successfully guided urban development towards a polycentric spatial structure. Regarding the data used in the study, Global Human Settlement Layer (GSHL) is a valuable dataset that is generally suited to assessing the urban development pattern. The time series mapping of growth in built-up areas as well as population and built-up intensity mapping based on time specific categorization supplemented by the quantitative assessment of high urban concentrations (hUCs) based on time specific thresholding allows the identification of development patterns over a long period of time.

Geospatial Analysis of Building Structures in Megacity Dhaka: the Use of Spatial Statistics for Promoting Data-driven Decision-making

“…Furthermore, the polycentric spatial pattern can be identified for four different land use categories and spatial dimensions (horizontal and vertical). However, a temporal evaluation of spatial urban development was not possible in megacities such as Shenzhen in China (Xie et al 2018) or Mumbai in India (Taubenböck et al 2009). In the case of Dhaka, several studies on spatial urban and land use structure analysis were conducted (Dewan and Yamaguchi 2009;Islam and Ahmed 2011;) using mainly remote sensing data, a spatial matrix, and scenario modeling.…”

To What Extent Can Satellite Cities and New Towns Serve as a Steering Instrument for Polycentric Urban Expansion during Massive Population Growth?—A Comparative Analysis of Tokyo and Shanghai

“…This study continues the methodology developed by Xie et al for a case study of the Chinese city of Shenzhen [20], in which GIS data were used to quantitatively assess and visually represent the impact of planning interventions in urban growth management, thereby contributing to an evidence-based investigation of the long-term impact of satellite city/new town planning. The differences in the development pathways of Tokyo and Shanghai in the current case and Shenzhen in the aforementioned study confirm the plausibility of the methodology and its transferability to other geographical settings.…”

“…To address the challenge of capturing polycentricity over a long-term period, we established a definition that considers an urban region as polycentric when it encompasses multiple areas exhibiting spatial densification from a morphological perspective. This definition is based on the methodology devised by Xie et al [20], which aligns with the concepts introduced by Greene [21], Riguelle et al [22] and Taubenböck et al [23]. This approach aims to contribute to the transfer of knowledge in urban-regional development research between the Global North and Global South.…”

“…This phenomenon is evident in both Tokyo and Shanghai. It can be contrasted with the example of Shenzhen [20], which shows how a planning-led polycentric structure can also yield substantial success in growth management, both regarding built-up areas and population density. Considering that Shenzhen is "a city with no urban history", we can assume that in metropolises such as Tokyo and Shanghai, the creation of planned satellite cities and new towns is not an ideal way of steering population growth away from the urban core.…”

Polycentric Urbanization and Sustainable Development in China

“…The effects of state‐led practices have also been extensively researched. Multiple‐center urban planning or development strategies are regarded as playing a critical role in forming polycentric urban structures (Liu & Wang, 2016; Xie et al 2018). City governments’ participation in land and housing development of new towns has greatly promoted the formation of polycentric cities, as demonstrated in Korean and Chinese cases (Lee & Shin, 2012; Liu & Wang, 2016).…”