Ex Ante Impact Assessment of Policies Affecting Land Use, Part A: Analytical Framework

Abstract

Contemporary policy making calls for scientific support to anticipate the possible consequences of optional policy decisions on sustainable development. This paper presents an analytical framework for ex ante assessment of economic, social, and environmental impacts of policy driven land use changes that can be used as an aid to policy making. The tasks were to (1) link policy scenarios with land use change simulations, (2) link land use change simulations with environmental, social, and economic impacts through indicators, and (3) valuate the impacts in the context of sustainable development. The outcome was a basis for dialogue at the science-policy interface in the process of developing new policies on the European level that impact on land and land use. The analytical approach provides a logical thread for ex ante impact assessment within the context of sustainable development, land use multifunctionality, and land use change and it provides a thorough discussion of achievements and open challenges related to the framework. It concludes with considerations on the potential for using evidence based ex ante assessments in the process of policy development. The paper is complemented by a B-paper providing exemplary results from two applications of the framework: a financial reform scenario of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union, and a bioenergy policy scenario for the case of Poland (Helming et al. 2011).

Stakeholder Strategies for Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Scenarios: Analytical Framework and Identifying Land Use Claims

“…The assessment of the impacts of future-oriented land use strategies on regional SD therefore requires both the scientific estimation of the anticipated effects on ecological, economic and social aspects in a research region [13,14] and the contextualization of these effects in a normative, societal frame. Consequently, for a policy-and decision-relevant SIA of land use scenarios, it is necessary to identify topics that are compatible with societal discourses [8]. The operationalization of the SD of land use at a regional level, however, is complicated by methodological problems [15].…”

“…The concept of SD is a normative and societal construct whereby science can primarily provide the information basis, whereas society and policymakers decide on the configuration of future land use [10] and assess sustainable land use demands for an integrated and spatially explicit approach [8]. For an SIA of land use scenarios at a landscape level, it is necessary to connect the future political and societal demands and the supply of region-specific portfolios of land use functions (LUFs).…”

“…After that, we discuss the implications against present knowledge gaps and SD as a multi-level issue. [8], to integrate policy, actors' and planning targets at different governance levels.…”

“…To assess SD at the landscape level, it is essential to connect the future demand and supply of region-specific portfolios of functions related to land use [6,7]. Hence, an ex-ante Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) of the anticipated effects on land use related functions [8] in the research area of north-eastern Germany and, in particular, the types of area lowland fens and sewage farms is necessary. The modified landscapes may require adaption strategies implemented by government authorities and land owners to achieve regional SD.…”

Assessing and Governing Ecosystem Services Trade-Offs in Agrarian Landscapes: The Case of Biogas

“…Some sophisticated approaches are available for investigating the impacts of biogas production on the farm to landscape level [16][17][18][19]. Some spatially-explicit integrated modelling frameworks also exist for exploring opportunity costs [20][21][22]. However, these approaches and tools are relatively complex, too resource intensive for practical application and, thus, not best suited to assist in landscape planning and decision-making.…”