Ex-Ante Evaluation of Economic Impacts of Adopting Improved Forages in the Colombian Orinoquía

Abstract

Forage-based cattle systems play a key role in rural economies of developing countries in terms of food security and poverty alleviation. However, they can generate negative environmental impacts by contributing to increased greenhouse gas emissions, land degradation, and reduction of biodiversity. As a result of that, large amounts of resources have been allocated to research and development (R&D) in forage material improvement and a broad range of improved materials were released showing superior characteristics in terms of productivity and environmental impacts compared to native or naturalized materials. However, data are still scarce on both the economic and environmental “yields” of investments in R&D activities around improved forage materials. Through an ex-ante evaluation, this study aims at estimating the potential “yields” of the investment in R&D and diffusion activities of the improved forage variety Brachiaria brizantha 26,124 cv. Agrosavia Caporal in the Colombian Orinoquía region. The analysis used two evaluation methodologies: 1) a combined discounted free cash flow model and Monte Carlo simulation using the simulation software @Risk to determine the impact on individual welfare, and 2) an economic surplus model an risk analysis to determine the potential social benefits of the technologies and their distribution among producers and consumers, considering changes in adoption rates, productivity levels and probability of success. The results suggest that the evaluated material presents important economic benefits for the study region and results in a positive return on the investments made in R&D activities. The results are a key input for decision making processes among public and private institutions involved in funding and executing the development of improved forage materials and will help to set research priorities and resource allocation.

The Impact of Agricultural Credit on the Cattle Inventory and Deforestation in Colombia: A Spatial Analysis

“…The findings from literature and the present study suggest that for the sustainable intensification of the cattle sector to be successful, several policy and market mechanisms are required. This includes monitoring, law enforcement (i.e., in marginal, conflict-affected regions such as the Amazon), subsidies, taxes, and clarity on land tenure, among others [33]. In this regard, Colombia is already making strong advances, for example through the establishment of the National Zero Deforestation Agreements [33], the first public policy on sustainable cattle [90], new credit lines for the establishment of silvo-pastoral systems [79,91], and product differentiation [92,93,94], among others.…”

“…A solution to this can be found in sustainable intensification [38], where the employment of sustainable production systems, based on e.g., improved forages or silvo-pastoral systems, is intended to, among others, reduce the pressure on land and the expansion of the agricultural frontier, while increasing productivity. Nevertheless, increasing the productivity of cattle production systems, even in a sustainable way, can also lead to contrary effects and further contribute to deforestation (Borlaug effect) [33]. Studies from Brazil [87,88], for example, show a large mitigation potential of an intensified cattle sector if intensification is coupled to policy instruments, such as no-deforestation, taxes on conventional production systems, and subsidies for sustainable intensification.…”

“…This includes monitoring, law enforcement (i.e., in marginal, conflict-affected regions such as the Amazon), subsidies, taxes, and clarity on land tenure, among others [33]. In this regard, Colombia is already making strong advances, for example through the establishment of the National Zero Deforestation Agreements [33], the first public policy on sustainable cattle [90], new credit lines for the establishment of silvo-pastoral systems [79,91], and product differentiation [92,93,94], among others. It is yet too early, however, to make conclusions about the effectiveness of these instruments.…”

“…Despite its economic and social importance [33], (extensive) cattle ranching in Colombia is causing numerous negative environmental impacts, such as deforestation [34], which puts it at the center of debates around ecological conservation. The cattle sector is held responsible for approximately 60% of the country's deforestation, which is resulting from production inefficiencies, land use conflicts, and land speculation/grabbing, that drive cattle producers towards the expansion of the agricultural frontier [35][36][37].…”

Developments, bottlenecks, and opportunities in seed markets for improved forages in East Africa: The case of Kenya

“…Multiple studies underscore the significant role that improved forages can play in sustainably augmenting productivity in both meat and milk production, translating to increased incomes for livestock producers (e.g., Burkart et al, 2021; Enciso et al, 2021; Karimi et al, 2022; Maina et al, 2020; Paul et al, 2020; Sandoval et al, 2023; Schiek et al, 2018). Moreover, these improved forages have enhanced resilience to extreme weather conditions, including drought and waterlogging, and thus contribute to adaptation, that is, in silvo‐pastoral or agroforestry systems (Macedo Pezzopane et al, 2019; Montagnini et al, 2013; Naranjo Ramírez et al, 2014).…”