Ex-Ante Analysis of Economic, Social and Environmental Impacts of Large-Scale Renewable and Nuclear Energy Targets for Global Electricity Generation by 2030

Abstract

This study assesses the economic, social and environmental impacts of renewable and nuclear energy targets for global electricity generation by 2030. It examines different regions, as they might experience different impacts depending on the structures of their economies and their local natural resources, to understand the impact of these targets on their economics and well-being of their people. These regions are: Saudi Arabia, the United States (US), China, India, Europe and Rest of World (ROW). A well-known Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), is modified and used to predict global economic shifts that would be triggered by two scenarios. The business as usual (BAU) scenario assumes that the current electricity mix remains unchanged until 2030. The Renewable and Nuclear Energy (RNE) scenario is based on the International Energy Outlook (IEO) 2016 prediction. The analysis shows that the GDP value of all regions, except India, is affected negatively. The study shows a loss of 4.45 million jobs worldwide in the RNE compared to the BAU. Finally, the implementation of planned renewable and nuclear energy slightly benefits the environment but not enough to mitigate rise in global temperature.

Job creation during the global energy transition towards 100% renewable power system by 2050

“…Nevertheless, there are studies that have estimated the impact of renewable energy development on job creation to be negative, resulting in job losses. Almutairi et al (2018) show a loss of 4.45 million jobs worldwide up to 2030 in the Renewable and Nuclear Energy (RNE) scenario (based on the predictions of the international energy outlook) compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario. This study (Almutairi et al, 2018) has made an effort to estimate both the direct and indirect jobs associated with the different energy scenarios by assessing the overall impacts on the gross domestic product (GDP) of different countries.…”

“…Almutairi et al (2018) show a loss of 4.45 million jobs worldwide up to 2030 in the Renewable and Nuclear Energy (RNE) scenario (based on the predictions of the international energy outlook) compared to the business as usual (BAU) scenario. This study (Almutairi et al, 2018) has made an effort to estimate both the direct and indirect jobs associated with the different energy scenarios by assessing the overall impacts on the gross domestic product (GDP) of different countries. However, Markandya et al (2016) found the net employment impacts from the transformation of the European Union energy sector in the period 1995-2009, when the European Union's energy structure went through a significant shift, away from the more carbon intensive sources, towards gas and renewables to be positive.…”

What Is the Macroeconomic Impact of Higher Decarbonization Speeds? The Case of Greece

“…On the other hand, many studies argue against the "double dividend" effect of "green" policies, resulting in negative macroeconomic repercussions. For instance, Almutairi et al [58] evaluates the economic and societal implications of the implementation of the renewable and nuclear energy targets described in [59] for the cases of Saudi Arabia, United States of America, China, India, Europe, and the Rest of World (RoW) till 2030. To do so, they employ GTAP-E [60], an extension of the GTAP model [61] with energy specification, as described in [57].…”

Significant Issues of Nuclear Energy Investment Decisions for Energy Importer Countries

“…Furthermore, Prăvălie and Bandoc (2018) emphasized that nuclear reactors are beneficial for decarbonization if nuclear waste management can be made properly, because long lived and weak waste management reactors will harm to environment. However, Almutairi, Thoma, and Durand-Morat (2018) established two scenarios as business as usual (BAU) and, RE and nuclear energy (RNE) by 2030. In RNE scenario, all countries' GDP rates and employment rates decreased without mitigating climate change except India.…”