Evolutionary trends of the COVID-19 epidemic and effectiveness of government interventions in Nigeria: A data-driven analysis

Abstract

<jats:p>Background: Nigeria became the first sub Saharan African country to record a case of COVID-19 after an imported case from Italy was confirmed on February 27, 2020. Moving averages and the Epidemic Evaluation Indices (EEI) are two important but complementary methods useful in monitoring epidemic trends, they can also serve as a useful guide for policy makers and inform the timing of decisions on preventive measures. The objectives of this paper are to graphically depict the trends of new COVID-19 cases nationally and in two key States (Lagos and Kano) and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) using the moving averages and the EEI. In addition, we examined the effects of governments public health interventions on the spread of COVID-19 and appraise the progress made so far in addressing the challenges of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Methods: We used data on new cases of COVID-19 from public sources released by the Nigeria Center for Disease Control (NCDC) from the 27th February 2020, when the first case was recorded, to 11th May, 2020, one week after the lockdowns in Lagos and the FCT were lifted. We computed moving averages of various orders, the log transformations of the moving averages and then the EEIs of new COVID-19 cases for Nigeria as a whole, and then for two of the most affected states i.e. Lagos and Kano, as well as the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Then, we plotted graphs to depict these indices and show the epidemic trends for COVID-19 in each scenario. Results: Nationally, the number of new cases of COVID-19 showed an initial gradual rise from the first reported case on the 27th February 2020. However, by the second week in April, these numbers began to show a relatively sharper increase and this trend has continued till date. Similar trends were observed in Lagos state and the FCT. The rate of growth of the logarithm-transformed moving average in the period leading to, and including the lockdowns reduced by a factor of 0.65. This suggests that the policies put in place by the government including the lockdown measures in Lagos and the FCT may have had a positive effect on the development of new cases of COVID-19 in Nigeria. Nationally and in Lagos, the EEIs of the COVID-19 cases started off on very high notes, however, the effects of the lockdown gradually became evident by the end of April and early May 2020, as the EEIs headed closer to 1.0. In all case scenarios, the EEIs are still above 1.0. Conclusions and recommendations: The number of new cases of COVID-19 has been on a steady rise since the first reported case. In Nigeria especially across the two states and the FCT, public health interventions including the lockdown measures appear to have played a role in reducing the rate of increase of new infections. The EEIs are still above 1.0, suggesting that despite the progress that appears to have been made, the epidemic is still evolving and Nigeria has not yet reached her peak for COVID-19 cases. We recommend that aggressive public health interventions and restrictions against mass gatherings should be sustained.</jats:p>

Presenting Symptoms and Predictors of Poor Outcomes Among 2,184 Patients with COVID-19 in Lagos State, Nigeria

“…( Odukoya et al 2020 ) Lagos state was the first state to record and manage that case and has remained the epicentre of the pandemic, accounting for 36% of the cases and 22% of deaths as at July 26, 2020. (NCDC 2020, Odukoya et al 2020 )…”

“…Since the discovery of the index case of COVID-19 in Nigeria in February 2020,(NCDC Coronavirus COVID-19 Microsite, 2020 the spread of the virus has increased exponentially due to communitybased human-to-human transmission. (Odukoya et al, 2020) Lagos state was the first state to record and manage that case and has remained the epicentre of the pandemic, accounting for 36% of the cases and 22% of deaths as at July 26, 2020. (NCDC 2020, Odukoya et al, 2020 COVID-19 is a novel disease with seemingly variable clinical presentation and progression.…”

“…(Odukoya et al, 2020) Lagos state was the first state to record and manage that case and has remained the epicentre of the pandemic, accounting for 36% of the cases and 22% of deaths as at July 26, 2020. (NCDC 2020, Odukoya et al, 2020 COVID-19 is a novel disease with seemingly variable clinical presentation and progression. In several parts of the world, commonly reported symptoms include fever, dry cough, fatigue,…”

Country-Level Governance Indicators as Predictors of COVID-19 Morbidity, Mortality, and Vaccination Coverage: An Exploratory Global Analysis

“…The lockdown policies initiated in Lagos, Nigeria, likewise had a strong impact in slowing down COVID-19 incidences, as the rise in the rate of new cases was reduced by a factor of 0.65. 8 Analysis of China's early response to the pandemic demonstrates the tension between the federal power concentration and local governance during the early phases of the epidemic, which led to a breakdown of their public health model and created a time lag between federal, regional, and local responses. 9 Although some countries have managed to control the pandemic better than others by prioritizing certain control measures, COVID-19 is still present in almost every part of the world and continues to cripple nations such as India.…”

COVID-19 in Nigeria: implications for prevalent public mental health challenges

“…In achieving this goal, the PTF has begun with vital steps such as primary and secondary prevention of man-to-man transmission; provision of isolation and quarantine centers, diagnostic and laboratory facilities; and carrying of researches to highlight relevant factors, interventions, and effects of these. For example, particular research showed that the rate of growth before the lockdown was high, but the lockdown reduced that growth by a factor of 0.65 which suggests policy effect (Odukoya et al , 2020). Given their data, the authors suggested that the epidemic evaluation index was still above 1.0 showing that the epidemic was still ongoing.…”