Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

Vanselow, Anna; Halekotte, Lukas; Feudel, Ulrike

doi:10.1007/s12080-021-00522-w

Cited by 15 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 92 publications

(113 reference statements)

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“…In recent years, for example, it has been observed that a time-dependent transition connecting a past dynamical system to a future one can give rise to critical transitions when the transition dynamics "fails to connect the limit ones" [5]. This type of phenomenon has been identified in several real scenarios including ecology [39,42], climate [2,5,27,43], biology [21], and quantum mechanics [23], among others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critical Transitions in Piecewise Uniformly Continuous Concave Quadratic Ordinary Differential Equations

2022

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A critical transition for a system modelled by a concave quadratic scalar ordinary differential equation occurs when a small variation of the coefficients changes dramatically the dynamics, from the existence of an attractor–repeller pair of hyperbolic solutions to the lack of bounded solutions. In this paper, a tool to analyze this phenomenon for asymptotically nonautonomous ODEs with bounded uniformly continuous or bounded piecewise uniformly continuous coefficients is described, and used to determine the occurrence of critical transitions for certain parametric equations. Some numerical experiments contribute to clarify the applicability of this tool.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critical Transitions in Piecewise Uniformly Continuous Concave Quadratic Ordinary Differential Equations

2022

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“…sudden dramatic changes in population size, generally toward much lower numbers) has been well-explained in models with bistability between two stationary base states (Dakos et al, 2019). These two states could be, for example, a high population coexistence state and either a low population coexistence state or a state with extinction of one or both populations (Kaur & Sharathi, 2022;O'Keeffe & Wieczorek, 2019;Osmond & Klausmeier, 2017;Vanselow et al, 2019Vanselow et al, , 2022. However, little is known about the effects of climate change on systems whose base state is oscillatory (Bathiany et al, 2018;Sauvé et al, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Stochastic resonance in climate reddening increases the risk of cyclic ecosystem extinction via phase‐tipping

Alkhayuon

Marley

Wieczorek

et al. 2023

Global Change Biology

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The rate of switching between these climate regimes can be plotted to determine the expected number of years when conditions will remain either in a low productivity state, or a high productivity state. Excessively long series of years under one type of climate, such as that experienced during the extended drought of the Great Depression in North America, can occur but are unusual under typical variability. Much attention has been given to the fact that anthropogenic climate change (henceforth, climate change) is resulting in a gradual warming of global mean temperatures. Climate change, however, is also altering the climatic variability, that is, climate variations on the scale of years (also called environmental stochasticity). Existing work has shown that alterations in climatic variability can have much

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“…A number of previous studies have considered how evolution can counteract deleterious environmental change [22][23][24][25][26], yet the body of work on rate-induced tipping points has so far developed independently. An exception is the recent work by Vanselow et al [27], which shows that rate-induced collapse of a prey population occurring purely due to the ecological dynamics (i.e. even with no evolution) can be indirectly prevented through the evolutionary adaptation of a predator population.…”

Section: Minimal Model Of Evolutionary Rescue and Rate-induced Extinc...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Rate-induced collapse in evolutionary systems

Arnscheidt

Rothman

2022

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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Recent work has highlighted the possibility of ‘rate-induced tipping’, in which a system undergoes an abrupt transition when a perturbation exceeds a critical rate of change. Here, we argue that this is widely applicable to evolutionary systems: collapse, or extinction, may occur when external changes occur too fast for evolutionary adaptation to keep up. To bridge existing theoretical frameworks, we develop a minimal evolutionary–ecological model showing that rate-induced extinction and the established notion of ‘evolutionary rescue’ are fundamentally two sides of the same coin: the failure of one implies the other, and vice versa. We compare the minimal model’s behaviour with that of a more complex model in which the large-scale dynamics emerge from the interactions of many individual agents; in both cases, there is a well-defined threshold rate to induce extinction, and a consistent scaling law for that rate as a function of timescale. Due to the fundamental nature of the underlying mechanism, we suggest that a vast range of evolutionary systems should in principle be susceptible to rate-induced collapse. This would include ecosystems on all scales as well as human societies; further research is warranted.

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Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

Cited by 15 publications

References 92 publications

Critical Transitions in Piecewise Uniformly Continuous Concave Quadratic Ordinary Differential Equations

Critical Transitions in Piecewise Uniformly Continuous Concave Quadratic Ordinary Differential Equations

Stochastic resonance in climate reddening increases the risk of cyclic ecosystem extinction via phase‐tipping

Rate-induced collapse in evolutionary systems

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