Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis

Kelley, Allen C.; Schmidt, Robert M.

doi:10.1007/s00148-005-0222-9

Cited by 145 publications

(129 citation statements)

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“…11 9 One might argue that earlier fertility levels in the community could affect the average education, because growing up with many siblings may have adverse effects on a child's enrollment and educational progression (e.g. Eloundou-Enyegue and Williams 2006) and because of aggregate-level effects of a high dependency ratio on local economic growth and thus opportunities for educational investments (Kelley and Schmidt 2005). Furthermore, the individual women's fertility may be influenced by this earlier fertility, especially to the extent that it reflects the fertility of their parents (which is particularly likely if there has been little migration).…”

Section: Included Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Further evidence of community education effects on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa

Kravdal¹

2012

DemRes

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Section: Included Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Further evidence of community education effects on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa

Kravdal¹

2012

DemRes

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“…(A comprehensive review of the recent economic-demographic modelling and the role of accounting effects can be found in Kelley & Schmidt (2003)). The growth rate of output per working age person,ŷ, contains the behavioral effects, while the terml, which equals the difference between the growth rate of the working age population and the growth rate of the total population, is the accounting effect.…”

Section: The Role Of Demographic Variables In Explaining Economic Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, the accounting effect can be calculated directly from calculating the difference between the growth rates of the working age population and the growth rate of the total population, with no need of regressions. For this reason, we estimated behavioral effects by regressing the growth of output per working age person on its determinants and have calculated the accounting effect directly without the use of regression exercises (see some regressions in Kelley & Schmidt (2003) for a similar estimation strategy and Kögel (2003) for the estimation of behavioral effects using regressions on the growth of output per worker).…”

Section: The Role Of Demographic Variables In Explaining Economic Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The motivation for including the level of age structure and not its growth rate is the fact that, at least in the transition to a steady state, growth of output per working age person is affected by the level of savings. In turn, Bloom et al (2003a) have empirically confirmed that the level of savings is affected by the level of age structure variables and not their growth rates (Kelley & Schmidt (2003) and Kögel (2003) independently suggest including only the level of youth dependency ratio for this reason). Nevertheless, in the analysis that follows we also investigated empirically, whether our hypothesis that growth of youth dependency ratio does not matter for growth of output per working age person finds empirical support.…”

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confidence: 91%

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The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India

Prskawetz

Kögel

Sanderson

et al. 2007

International Journal of Forecasting

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may / 2004The Effects of Age Structure on Economic Growth: An Application of Probabilistic Forecasting to India Abstract During recent years there has been an increasing awareness of the explanatory power of demographic variables in economic growth regressions. We estimate a new model of the effects of age structure change on economic growth. We use the new model and recent probabilistic demographic projections for India to derive the uncertainty of predicted economic growth rates caused by the uncertainty in demographic developments.

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“…Kelley and Schmidt (2005) summarize much of the evidence concerning the importance of demographic factors for growth in both developing and developed countries. Lindh and Malmberg (2007) estimate a demographically based forecasting model which takes account of the changing economic impact of age distribution as longevity increases.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector

Zamac¹,

Hallberg²,

Lindh³

2009

Eur J Population

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Recently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caught in a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be social interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction mechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent-based simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growth and population pa th is calibrated to Swedish data and using the Swedish social policy setup. The model is provoked into a fertility trap by increasing relative child costs linked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are then insufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarily enables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing the adaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.Keywords: Low fertility trap, Social norms, Relative income, Economic growth Basse fécondité et croissance à long terme dans une économie à secteur public très développé Il a été suggéré récemment que les pays à basse fécondité pourraient être victimes d'un piège dont ils auraient du mal à se dégager. Un mécanisme essentiel dans ce piège serait l'interaction sociale et son effet sur la taille idéale de famille. Des mécanismes de ce type sont difficiles à représenter dans un modèle formel, et c'est pourquoi nous avons eu recours à un modèle de simulation multi-agents pour explorer le processus. Dans notre dispositif expérimental, un modèle de croissance et de population stable est calibré aux données suédoises, en utilisant la configuration suédoise de politique sociale. Le modèle est entraîné dans un piège de fécondité en élevant les coûts relatifs de l'enfant en lien avec la croissance positive. Dans ce cas, même des augmentations importantes des prestations familiales sont insuffisantes pour sortir du piège. Toutefois, le petit nombre d'enfants permet temporairement à l'économie de croître plus rapidement pendant quelques décennies. L'arrêt de l'adaptation aux normes sociales conduit à une neutralisation du piège.Mots-clés : Piège de basse fécondité, Normes sociales, Revenu relatif, Croissance économique 2

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Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis

Abstract: O11, J1, O4, Demography, convergence, growth,

Cited by 145 publications

References 0 publications

Further evidence of community education effects on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa

Further evidence of community education effects on fertility in sub-Saharan Africa

The effects of age structure on economic growth: An application of probabilistic forecasting to India

Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector

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