Évolution et sensibilité aux aléas des résultats technico-économiques des exploitations de bovins allaitants selon les profils de production

Mosnier, Claire; Agabriel, Jacques; Veysset, Patrick; Bébin, Didier; Lherm, Michel

doi:10.20870/productions-animales.2010.23.1.3290

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(19 reference statements)

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“…Results of our simulations emphasized that production adjustments, particularly the adjustments of area of grassland harvested and the possibility to purchase substitutes to on-a) b) farm forage production improve farmers profit under weather variability. These results are corroborated by empirical analysis Mosnier et al 2010) and by simulation studies (Sullivan et al, 1981 ;Gillard and Monypenny, 1990 ;Romera et al , 2005 ;Diaz-Solis et al, 2006 ;Kobayashi et al, 2007;Jouven and Baumont, 2008). However, the highest the cost to buy feed is, the most incentives farmers have to be self sufficient under weather uncertainty.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 65%

“…Two kinds of risks can be anticipated: embedded risk which occurs when farmers plan to adjust their decisions following the realization of an uncertain event, and, nonembedded risk if risks are expected to affect profit but without real possibility for the farmer to reduce their impacts a posteriori (see also Hardaker et al, 2004). Previous works (Mosnier et al, 2009 andMosnier et al, 2010) emphasized that grassland yield shocks in the French Charolais area involve many adjustments of the production systems, namely adjustments of animal diet composition, of feed product trade and haymaking. Consequently, bimonthly decisions are differentiated after the realisation of the weather event.…”

Section: Farmers Time and Risk Anticipationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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On-Farm Weather Risk Management in Suckler Cow Farms: A Recursive Discrete Stochastic Programming Approach

Mosnier

Agabriel

Lherm

et al. 2011

Bio-Economic Models Applied to Agricultural Systems

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Currently France wants to introduce a weather risk management framework into its agricultural policy for livestock farming. The aim of this paper is to better understand how on-farm risk reducing strategies modify the production system and profit distribution of French suckler cow enterprises. We present in this paper an original bioeconomic model that takes into account both risk anticipation and risk adjustments and that details biotechnical relationships between the different components of the beef cattle production system and their dynamics. On-farm risk management strategies are endogeneized under weather uncertainty and tested on real observed weather sequences. We simulate four scenarios characterized by different risk aversions and feed prices. Results emphasized that production adjustments, particularly the adjustments of area of grassland harvested and the possibility to purchase substitutes to on-farm forage production, improve farmers profit under weather variability. However, limiting the amplitude of these adjustments helps decreasing profit variability. All simulated long term decisions associated to risk reducing strategies encompass a reduction of long term stocking rate and the constitution of feed stocks. The impact of hay feed price on the market has similar effects on the long term strategy.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 65%

Section: Farmers Time and Risk Anticipationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On-Farm Weather Risk Management in Suckler Cow Farms: A Recursive Discrete Stochastic Programming Approach

Mosnier

Agabriel

Lherm

et al. 2011

Bio-Economic Models Applied to Agricultural Systems

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“…Farmers may change their management to prevent such low production over a long period. Farmers tend to adapt their herd management over time to respond to severe disturbances or in anticipation of a long-lasting one (Mosnier et al, 2009(Mosnier et al, , 2010. Adaptation may consist of increasing purchases of animals and reducing culling.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A modeling approach complements observational studies by enabling an ex-ante evaluation of the resilience of a farming system to disturbances. Observational studies highlight possible options available to farmers to adapt their farming system to disturbances (Lemery et al, 2005;Dedieu and Ingrand, 2010) or to evaluate technical and economic results (Liénard et al, 2002;Mosnier et al, 2010). Modeling allows herd dynamics with different initial situations to be evaluated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Resilience of a beef cow-calf farming system to variations in demographic parameters1

Viet

Ezanno

Petit

et al. 2013

Journal of Animal Science

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Beef cow-calf farming systems are assumed to be resilient to biological disturbances that induce variations in herd demography; however, this hypothesis has not been fully investigated to date. Modeling is an interesting approach to study farming system resilience and to evaluate the impact of biological disturbances, taking into account interactions between system components, including biological variability and management practices. Our objective was to evaluate the resilience of beef cow-calf farming systems to variations in fertility and mortality using a modeling approach. We studied the direct effect of variations in demographic parameters on production objectives without explicitly representing the causes of the variations. We developed a stochastic model to represent the population dynamics of a beef cow-calf herd with breeding by natural service and biological processes occurring at the animal level. The model was validated by comparing observed and simulated distributions of the calving-to-calving interval, which were found to be consistent. Resistance was evaluated by the proportion of simulations where the objective in terms of number of weaned calves is reached even when there is a disturbance that persists for 10 yr. Reversibility was evaluated by the time needed to return to the predisturbance production level. Beef cow-calf farming systems did not appear to be resistant to variations in mortality and infertility rates except when increases in the infertility rates were low (0.02 for cows and 0.03 for heifers). Critical situations, consequently, may emerge with regard to farm production if management practices are not adapted. Reversibility was observed for disturbances that persist for up to 5 yr. However, the system needed 2 to 3 yr to recover its predisturbance production level and up to 4 yr after an increase in cow infertility of 0.12.

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“…It is likely that the resilience of the five systems would differ regarding the type of hazard considered (Carpenter et al 2014) so that addressing the resilience to climate and workforce hazard remains of high interest. To analyse the effects of climatic hazards, an option would be to work with long time series on a wide range of farms (Mosnier et al 2014) or to simulate climate hazard scenarios based on past weather series data (Joly et al 2018). It would be particularly interesting to try identifying possible relationships between the three technical variables that drive income SD in this study, as these could be affected by climatic hazards through a change in the types and growth patterns of feed resources.…”

Section: Sensitivity To Other Hazards and Opportunities Offered By Public Policiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of the buffering and adaptive mechanisms underlying the economic resilience of sheep-meat farms

Benoît

Joly

Blanc

et al. 2020

Agron. Sustain. Dev.

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The sustainability of livestock systems can be assessed through their productive and environmental performance, the ecosystem services they provide or their resilience to hazards. We used a modelling approach to assess how key economic performance indicators respond to technical and market hazards in five different meat-sheep farms, across France and Ireland. Hazards were related to seven technical or economic variables: ewe fertility, prolificacy, lamb mortality, prices of light and heavy lambs, concentrate use and energy use. We used a mechanistic model to simulate farm functioning and assess farm performance over 3000 iterations, based on simultaneous random draws with hazards to the previously mentioned seven variables. We quantified this way (i) the compensatory effects of different types of technical and economic mechanisms that lead to more stable economic performance and (ii) the probability of economic collapse of meat-sheep farms through a diachronic analysis. We showed that variations in technical variables have larger effects on income variability than variations in economic variables. We also showed that the most resilient systems, i.e. those with the lowest coefficient of variation of net income, are those that combine a low level of inputs with at least two lambing periods per year. Short duration of pregnancy in ewes makes multiperiod lambing possible, which can buffer the variability of technical variables and enhance the adaptive capability of the system by offering the possibility to move empty ewes to a new batch for re-mating. We thus analysed for the first time farm economic resilience to combined technical and economic hazards, and highlighted the buffer and adaptive mechanisms of resilience, with a mechanistic model.

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Évolution et sensibilité aux aléas des résultats technico-économiques des exploitations de bovins allaitants selon les profils de production

Cited by 6 publications

References 15 publications

On-Farm Weather Risk Management in Suckler Cow Farms: A Recursive Discrete Stochastic Programming Approach

On-Farm Weather Risk Management in Suckler Cow Farms: A Recursive Discrete Stochastic Programming Approach

Resilience of a beef cow-calf farming system to variations in demographic parameters1

Assessment of the buffering and adaptive mechanisms underlying the economic resilience of sheep-meat farms

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