Evidence, models, conservation programs and limits to management

Nichols, James D.

doi:10.1111/j.1469-1795.2012.00574.x

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Under the pessimistic predictions of the third model, even extreme management (horseshoe crab harvest moratorium) failed to generate adequate red knot population growth. Such limits to management are being encountered more frequently in conservation (Nichols ) and argue strongly for explicit, model‐based projection of the consequences of management actions. Knowledge of such limits is important, as inadequacy of proposed conservation efforts motivates search for additional management actions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: must uncertainty impede effective decision‐making?

Smith

McGowan

Daily

et al. 2013

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Summary1. Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified. 2. A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa, the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a statedependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating. 3. We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified. 4. Synthesis and applications. The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to evaluate adaptive management performance and value of learning. Although natural resource decisions are characterized by uncertainty, not all uncertainty will cause decisions to be altered substantially, as we found in this case. It is important to incorporate uncertainty into the decision framing and evaluate the effect of reducing that uncertainty on achieving the desired outcomes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: must uncertainty impede effective decision‐making?

Smith

McGowan

Daily

et al. 2013

Journal of Applied Ecology

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“…Combining the efforts of research, management and monitoring through an integrated national adaptive management approach would improve the conservation outcomes for the malleefowl (Benshemesh & Bode, 2011;Nichols, 2012). Monitoring the response of other threatened or declining species in Australia, such as the southern scrub-robin Drymodes brunneopygia or regent parrot Polytelis anthopeplus, to relevant management actions may add conservation value to the adaptive management project.…”

Section: Adaptive Management In the Wider Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The new adaptive management framework should test the effects of management for other threats, such as fire and grazing, through similar experimental plots. It would then be possible to prioritize the allocation of investment towards management actions that achieve the greatest outcome, as described in the final step of the SDM framework (Nichols, 2012). It should also account for management differences across subpopulations (McDonald-Madden, Baxter & Possingham, 2008) and test the interactions between multiple threats and actions (Evans, Possingham & Wilson, 2011).…”

Section: Modified Monitoring For Management and Research Under Adaptimentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In their commentaries, Garnett (2012) and Nichols (2012) highlight two different aspects of this study, describing the role of structured decision making (SDM) and adaptive management approaches for optimized conservation practice, and identifying future research and key management issues for the malleefowl. Here, we discuss how research, monitoring and management can be integrated into an adaptive management framework, to achieve greater conservation outcomes for the malleefowl and potentially other Australian threatened species.…”

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confidence: 99%

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