Evidence for rapid thinning of sea ice in the western Arctic Ocean at the end of the 1980s

Tucker, W. B.; Weatherly, John W.; Eppler, Duane T.; Farmer, L D; Bentley, Diane L

doi:10.1029/2001gl012967

Cited by 125 publications

(121 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The draft observations in Figure 5a have a trend of À0.16 m yr À1 in winter; the downward summer trend apparent in the figure is likely due to bias from the location of the 1997 cruise track (section 2). These trends suggest that the bulk of the decrease of 1.3 m from the 1960s to the 1990s [Rothrock et al, 1999] occurred between the late 1980s and the 1990s [Tucker et al, 2001]. This view is supported by our modeled thickness in Figure 3a.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

“…During the 1980s, these regions were supplied with ice recirculating in the strong Beaufort anticyclonic gyre; when the Icelandic cyclonic circulation strengthened during the late 1980s and 1990s (high NAO index in Figure 10b), these regions were supplied with younger ice from the Laptev Sea. Tucker et al [2001] suggest that the weaker Beaufort gyre and invasion of younger ice from the Laptev Sea caused the observed thinning along the submarine transects from the North Pole to the Beaufort Sea. High NAO also signals a more vigorous evacuation of ice from the central Arctic Ocean through Fram Strait, leaving younger, thinner ice behind.…”

Section: Interannual Variation Of Thickness In the Present Simulationmentioning

confidence: 97%

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The arctic ice thickness anomaly of the 1990s: A consistent view from observations and models

2003

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[1] Observations of sea-ice draft from submarine cruises in much of the Arctic Ocean show that the ice cover was unusually thin in the mid-1990s. Here we limit our examination to digitally recorded draft data from eight cruises spanning the years 1987 to 1997 and find a decrease of about 1 m over the 11-year span. Comparisons of our modeled draft with observed draft show good agreement in the temporal change. Comparing average draft over entire cruises, the RMS discrepancy between modeled and observed draft is 0.3 m and the correlation is 0.98. Agreement in the spatial patterns of draft is somewhat lower; the RMS discrepancy of 50-km averages of draft is 0.7 m and the correlation is 0.73. We review reports of interannual variations of ice thickness or volume from other model studies. All models agree that thickness decreased by between 0.6 and 0.9 m from 1987 to 1996. Our model shows a modest recovery in thickness from 1996 to 1999. For the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, models tend to disagree on the size and to a lesser extent the timing or phase of interannual variations.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 75%

Section: Interannual Variation Of Thickness In the Present Simulationmentioning

confidence: 97%

The arctic ice thickness anomaly of the 1990s: A consistent view from observations and models

2003

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“…Changes in sea ice are driven by warming temperatures, but also by changes in atmospheric circulation. The Beaufort Sea 420 was once a region where ice would thicken and age before being transported to the Chukchi Sea and re-circulated in the Arctic (Tucker et al, 2001;Rigor et al, 2002) but now the region has become a considerable contributor to the Arctic's MYI loss (Kwok and Cunningham, 2010;Maslanik et al, 2011;Krishfield et al, 2014;Galley et al, 2016). Ice is still being sequestered from the Canadian Basin and transported through the Beaufort Sea during the summer months but the ice is now younger and thinner and unable survive the melt season en route to the Chukchi Sea (Howell et al, 2016a).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Canadian Snow and Sea Ice: Trends (1981–2015) and Projections (2020–2050)

Mudryk

Derksen

Howell

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network (CanSISE) is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, 15 and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-20 year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last eight years. The multimodel consensus over the 2020-2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5-10% per decade (or 15-30% in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10% per decade (30% in total) are projected across southern Canada. 25 IntroductionSeasonal terrestrial snow and sea ice influence short term weather and longer term climate by altering the surface energy budget, modifying both the surface reflectivity and thermal conductivity (Serreze et al., 2007;Flanner et al., 2011;Gouttevin et al., 2012). Snow also influences freshwater storage through soil moisture recharge and surface runoff (Barnett et al., 2005). Understanding historical and projected future changes to snow and ice is essential both to assess the importance of 30 physical changes to the climate system, and to thus assess their consequent impacts and risks. A previous assessment of the The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10. 5194/tc-2017-198 Manuscript under review for journal The Cryosphere Previous studies have shown that warming temperatures, which are amplified at higher latitudes as a natural response to increasing greenhouse gases (Serreze et al., 2009;Pithan and Mauritsen, 2014), reduce the spatial extent and mass of snow 45 and ice (for example, see Derksen et al., 2012). In reality, the linkage between warming temperatures and snow/sea ice reduction is more nuanced due to: regional and seasonal climate variability: for example, surface temperature warming across Canadian land and ocean areas is not uniform in space and time, but contains regional and seasonal variability driven by natural climatic processes such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other...

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“…In conclusion, these results suggest that the changes observed over the past couple of decades are the result of strong interannual variability mainly due to variable winds, which are superimposed on a longer-term trend of decreasing ice volume due to warming temperatures. Tucker et al (2001) compared complementary submarine draft measurements performed between off Alaska and the North Pole between 1985 and 1988 with data from the same transects obtained in 1992-94. During this short period, mean ice drafts decreased by 1.5 m. Again, it remains unclear if this represents just some variability or an actual trend.…”

Section: Decadal Thickness Variability In the Arcticmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics versus Thermodynamics: The Sea Ice Thickness Distribution

Haas

2003

Sea Ice

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Changes of sea ice coverage are commonly taken as an indicator for climate change. Since 30 years, the area of the Arctic and Southern oceans covered by sea ice is routinely monitored by satellite radiometers (Chapter 6). These observations show that the ice coverage of the Arctic Ocean strongly declines during summer, with an average rate of -11.1% per decade. However, in 2007 and 2008, this trend was drastically exceeded when sea ice extent reduced to record lows of only 4.13 and 4.52 km 2 , less than 20% of previous summers, and raising concerns that the Arctic Ocean might become ice-free during summers within the next few decades. However, winter ice coverage of the Arctic Ocean decreases at a much slower pace of only -2.8% per decade. And in contrast to the Arctic, sea ice coverage of the Southern Ocean increases slightly, with 0.6% and 3.4% per decade in the winter and summer, respectively.The sea ice decline in the Arctic is much more rapid than predicted by any of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) climate models . This demonstrates our limited understanding of the processes of sea ice growth and melt, and ice motion and deformation. For a full understanding of the areal changes, additional information on ice thickness is required, but is largely missing up to the date of this writing. This chapter will discuss the importance of ice thickness information, the most frequently used ice thickness measurement techniques and results from observations of long-term, interannual and seasonal thickness variations.In Chapter 2, it was described how sea ice initially forms from open water and subsequently grows into an ice cover, or in other terms, how sea ice grows thermodynamically. One of the basic concepts is that the more the ice grows thicker, the colder the air is due to the establishment of greater temperature gradients in the ice, and higher freezing rates. Vice versa, it would follow that as a consequence of climate warming, the polar sea ice cover would become thinner. However, another process contributes to the sea ice thickness distribution: Due to its relative thinness -some decimetres to a few metres -sea ice fl oating over deep water is subject to winds and currents which steadily move the ice around, i.e. the ice cover drifts. As a result, it breaks up into fl oes interspersed by open water leads. With changing drift directions and speeds, the ice fl oes will be pushed together and collide with each other. If the resulting forces in the ice become too large, it will fi nally break. The resulting

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Evidence for rapid thinning of sea ice in the western Arctic Ocean at the end of the 1980s

Cited by 125 publications

References 21 publications

The arctic ice thickness anomaly of the 1990s: A consistent view from observations and models

The arctic ice thickness anomaly of the 1990s: A consistent view from observations and models

Canadian Snow and Sea Ice: Trends (1981–2015) and Projections (2020–2050)

Dynamics versus Thermodynamics: The Sea Ice Thickness Distribution

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