Evidence for Middle‐Income Trap Non‐occurrence in the Light of KLEMS Growth Accounting for Poland☆

Abstract

There is an ongoing discussion that many middle-income countries are on the brink of the so-called Middle-income Trap, if not already stuck in it. The case of the Polish economy is analyzed, as an example of a Central-Eastern Europe economy, to solve whether this is actually happening. Thanks to KLEMS growth accounting datasets published by Statistics Poland an analysis on this issue became feasible, showing that for Poland the assertion of the middle-income trap threat has to be rejected after observing the growth distribution between industries, and particularly their growth decompositions into factor and MFP contributions. Extending this research to some other countries may possibly confirm that, just as for Poland, this "trap" is not taking place (or the converse). Although not solving the theoretical nexus on the middle-income trap notion, these findings can be interesting for Central-Eastern Europe economies' researchers and the possible ongoing discussion.