Evidence-Based Policymaking: Insights and Recommendations for the Implementation of Clean Energy Transition Pathways for Kenya’s Power Sector

Abstract

With ambitious targets to drastically increase economic activity over the next decade, Kenya’s future is undoubtedly energy-intensive. Current power capacity expansion plans will see Kenya considerably ramp up fossil fuel generation, significantly increasing emissions. Therefore, Kenya is at a crucial stage of its national development, with critical decisions to make regarding its future power expansion and production. OSeMOSYS modelling software (clicSAND version v1.1) is employed to produce a series of possible clean energy transition pathways to increase renewable power production under rapidly intensifying demand. This study integrates existing national priorities and policies into six modelled scenarios to provide insights into their generation, total production, and costs, which can assist future policymaking and capacity-building efforts. The high-level insights gained in this research were employed to suggest key recommendations for Kenya’s power sector. Most notably, policy alignment, increased wind power production, energy-efficiency penetration, finance and investment securement, the development of storage technologies, power transmission, and distribution improvements should be prioritised.