Evidence-based Pandemic Preparedness: An Infrastructure for Population-scale Genome-based Testing for COVID-19

Abstract

Our lives (and deaths) have been dominated for more than a year by COVID-19, a pandemic that has caused hundreds of millions of disease cases, millions of deaths, trillions in economic costs, and major restrictions on our freedom. We argue that much of this could have been avoided by repeated and systematic population-scale PCR-based testing and targeted quarantine. We describe key elements of the current implementations of such a system and demonstrate (with Germany as an example), that this strategy could have suppressed the pandemic within weeks, eliminating the vast majority of its overall impact in terms of deaths, economic costs and restrictions. It can, however, still play a major role in further reducing the worldwide impact of the current phase of the pandemic, and remain as a key protection against similar dangers in the future.