Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation

Rietkerk, Max; Bastiaansen, Robbin; Banerjee, Swarnendu; Koppel, Johan van de; Baudena, Mara; Doelman, Arjen

doi:10.1126/science.abj0359

Cited by 127 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 106 publications

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“…Our modelling exercise ignored the spatial extent of ecological systems. Recent study had addressed that self-organization or spatial pattern formation could be linked to evasion of tipping points instead of signaling instability of spatial ecosystems (Rietkerk et al 2021). One avenue of future research would be to extend our framework to include spatial system and understand how spatial instability could be linked to local community structure.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Community structure determines the predictability of population collapse

Baruah

Özgül

Clements

2022

Preprint

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Early warning signals (EWS) are phenomenological tools that have been proposed as predictors of the collapse of biological systems. Whilst a growing body of work has shown the utility of EWS based on either statistic derived from abundance data or shifts in phenotypic traits such as body size, so far this work has largely focused on single species populations.However, in order to predict reliably the future state of ecological systems which inherently could consist of multiple species, understanding how reliable such signals are in a community context is critical.Here, reconciling quantitative genetics and Lotka-Volterra equations which allow us to track both abundance and mean traits, we simulate the collapse of populations embedded in mutualistic and multi-trophic predator-prey communities. Using these simulations and warning signals derived from both population- and community-level data, we show that the utility of abundance-based EWS as well as metrics derived from stability-landscape theory (e.g., width and depth of the basin of attraction) are fundamentally linked, and thus the depth and width of the stability landscape could be used to identify which species should exhibit the strongest EWS of collapse.The probability a species displays both trait and abundance based EWS is dependent on its position in a community, with some species able to act as indicators species. In addition, our results also demonstrate that in general trait-based EWS appear less reliable in comparison to abundance-based EWS in forecasting species collapses in our simulated communities. Furthermore, community-level abundance-based EWS were fairly reliable in comparison to their species-level counterparts in forecasting species level collapses.Our study suggests a holistic framework that combines abundance-based EWS and metrics derived from stability-landscape theory that may help in forecasting species loss in a community context.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Community structure determines the predictability of population collapse

Baruah

Özgül

Clements

2022

Preprint

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“…Finally, it is assumed that the long-term behaviour of many real-world systems in terms of the system's state such as the overturning strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation [23,97], the ice volume of the Greenland Ice Sheet [98] and the algae density in shallow lakes [19,20] can be qualitatively captured by the studied idealized tipping elements featuring a fold bifurcation as tipping mechanism. However, biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in the behaviour of these real-world systems and included in some more complex climate models may either give rise to further types of cascading tipping or may dampen the overall possibilities of tipping behavior [47,99].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’?

Klose

Wunderling

Winkelmann

et al. 2021

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth’s climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied as their activation would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. While a mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree, the domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down–based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention and anticipation across the distinct patterns of multiple tipping dynamics should be seen as a call to be more precise in future analyses on cascading dynamics arising from tipping element interactions in the Earth system.

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“…In 1952, Alan Turing described how patterns in nature, such as the stripes on animals' coats, can develop from a homogeneous starting position, which has been influential in both science [31] and art [32]. Arjen Doelman of Leiden University has stated [30]: "In ecological science, the Turing patterns are often explained as early-warning signals, because they indicate disturbance … Turing's mechanism of pattern formation is still undisputed.…”

Section: Global Cultural Patterns: Mixed Reality and Tipping Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Museums and Digital Culture: From Reality to Digitality in the Age of Covid-19

Giannini¹,

Bowen²

2021

Preprint

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Museums increasingly recognize the need to address advances in digital culture which impact the expectations and needs of their audiences. Museum collections of real objects need to be presented both on their own premises and digitally online, especially as social media becomes more and more influential in people’s everyday lives. We investigate these challenges magnified by advances in digital and computational media and culture looking particularly at recent and relevant reports on changes in the ways museums interact with the public. We find that the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated many of the changes driving museum transformation. We believe that museums must be more prepared than ever to adapt to unabated technological advances set in the midst of cultural and social revolution, now intrinsic to the digital landscape in which museums are inevitably connected and participating across the global digital ecosystem where they inevitably find themselves entrenched.

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Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation

Cited by 127 publications

References 106 publications

Community structure determines the predictability of population collapse

Community structure determines the predictability of population collapse

What do we mean, ‘tipping cascade’?

Museums and Digital Culture: From Reality to Digitality in the Age of Covid-19

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