Evaluation of water-level trends using spatiotemporal kriging in the Mimbres Basin, southwest New Mexico

Winter 2022�2023 Water-Level Elevation Map and Estimation of Water in Storage for a Region Northwest of Clovis, New Mexico

“…This simple model captures the general trough shape of both surfaces, declining to the southeast. Eleven wells whose redbed elevations were identified as outliers from the trend model using the criteria defined by Rawling (2022) were not used in further analysis. Three outliers from the water-level trend model were identified using the same criteria, but these were retained because of the much fewer number of water-level elevation data points (75 vs. 358).…”

“…In addition to the structure of the sample variograms, use of anisotropic models was suggested by the elongate study area, the strong northwest-southeast trend in the paleochannel surface topography and water-level elevations, and the geometry of the network of wells used for water-level measurements. Final variogram models were chosen to minimize the mean-squared error (MSE) of both the model fit to the sample variogram and the residuals of leave-oneout cross-validation (Rawling, 2022).…”

“…5 and 6). This two-step geostatistical interpolation is known as regression kriging, residual kriging, or kriging with external drift (Hengl et al, 2007;Montero et al, 2015;Rawling, 2022Rawling, , 2023. The procedure is the same regardless of terminology.…”