Evaluation of Two Bias-Correction Methods for Gridded Climate Scenarios over Japan

Ishizaki, Noriko N.; Nishimori, Motoki; Iizumi, Toshichika; Shiogama, Hideo; Hanasaki, Naota; Toko, Kiyoshi

doi:10.2151/sola.2020-014

Cited by 27 publications

(57 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…1 a contains the Daisetsu Mountains, which are of particular interest in this study. Figure 1 b shows the annual mean surface air temperatures under current climate conditions (average of 2001–2010) that were estimated using the bias-corrected and downscaled climate model outputs by Ishizaki et al 54 . In that study, bias-corrected climate scenarios based on four global climate models (GCMs, see " Methods " section) were generated; Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Saito et al 52 used this index to develop a high-resolution (2 km) method to estimate the permafrost distribution in northeastern Asia, including the Japanese mountainous permafrost region investigated in the present study. We therefore employed the same method to infer the permafrost distribution using the bias-corrected, 1-km resolution climate scenarios developed by Ishizaki et al 54 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, by applying the statistical method developed by Satio et al 52 for estimating the permafrost distribution to outputs from bias-corrected and downscaled climate model with a 1 km resolution 54 for the area of interest, we investigated the climatic conditions required to sustain permafrost in the Daisetsu Mountains. In Japan, the Climate Change Adaptation Act was enacted in 2018, and Ishizaki et al 54 created bias-corrected climate scenarios with a 1 km resolution in order to support the formulation of climate change adaptation measures by various actors in Japan. In general, it is difficult to create reliable high-resolution climate scenarios because the numerical models contain errors, and meteorological observations can only be made at a limited number of points.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In general, it is difficult to create reliable high-resolution climate scenarios because the numerical models contain errors, and meteorological observations can only be made at a limited number of points. Ishizaki et al 54 overcame these difficulties by correcting the systematic errors in climate model simulations based on detailed spatial meteorological observation data for Japan.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan

Yokohata

Iwahana

Sone

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Permafrost is known to occur in high mountainous areas such as the Daisetsu Mountains in Japan, which are located at the southernmost limit of the permafrost distribution in the world. In this study, areas with climatic conditions suitable for sustaining permafrost in the Daisetsu Mountains are projected using bias-corrected and downscaled climate model outputs and statistical relationships between surface air temperatures and permafrost areas. Using freezing and thawing indices, the size of the area in the Daisetsu Mountains where climatic conditions were suitable for permafrost were estimated to be approximately 150 km2 in 2010. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, this area is projected to decrease to about 30 km2 by 2050 and it is projected to disappear by around 2070. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the area is projected to decrease to approximately 20 km2 by 2100. The degradation of mountain permafrost could potentially affect the stability of trekking trails due to slope displacement, and it may also have deleterious effects on current alpine ecosystems. It is therefore important to accurately monitor changes in the mountain ecosystem environment and to implement measures to adapt to an environment that is projected to change significantly in the future.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan

Yokohata

Iwahana

Sone

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Working with the outputs of GCMs is in need of consideration of uncertainties due mainly to the structure of the model, i.e. the systematic errors [34]. The uncertainty may have rooted in the nature of the climate system also, however, it is not possible to deal with those types of uncertainties in climate change impact studies.…”

Section: Study Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Balov¹

2021

International Journal of Engineering Technologies IJET

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The recent increase in the frequency and intensity of the floods resulted from huge precipitation events in Bursa Province, Turkey, is the main motivation of this study. For this purpose, the daily precipitation values from the historical data recorded between 1971 and 2000 together with the projected data of the NorESM1-M general circulation model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios between 2031 and 2100 were used to calculate eight extreme precipitation events. The Spearman's rho and the Mann-Kendall trend tests were used to detect the trend in the indices. The results of the trend tests showed that any change is not expected in the total amount of the yearly precipitation amount, whereas the occurrence of the intense and short duration precipitation events is expected to be more probable by the end of the current century, compared to the last 30 years of the previous century. The positive significant trends were detected in some indices. However, the magnitude of the change in the climatic parameters and the increase in the number of extreme precipitation events cannot solely explain the increase in the number of destroying flood events in the province. Other parameters such as the dramatic increase in urbanization as a result of rapid population growth during the past years (since 1960) may have a more prominent effect on the increase of the flood risk in the province which is in need of comprehensive modeling and investigation.

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Underlying geology and climate interactively shape climate change refugia in mountain streams

Ishiyama

Sueyoshi

Molinos

et al. 2023

Ecological Monographs

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Identifying climate‐change refugia is a key adaptation strategy for reducing global warming impacts. Knowledge of the effects of underlying geology on thermal regime along climate gradients and the ecological responses to the geology‐controlled thermal regime is essential to plan appropriate climate adaptation strategies. In the present study, the dominance of volcanic rocks in the watershed is used as a landscape‐scale surrogate for cold groundwater inputs to clarify the importance of underlying geology in stream ecosystems along climate gradients. First, using hundreds of monitoring stations distributed across multiple catchments, we explored the relationship between watershed geology and the mean summer water temperature of mountain streams along climate gradients in the Japanese archipelago. Mean summer water temperature was explained by the interaction between the watershed geology and climate in addition to independent effects. The cooling effect supported by volcanic rocks reached up to 3.3°C among study regions, which was more pronounced in streams with less summer precipitation or lower air temperatures. Next, we examined the function of volcanic streams as cold refugia under contemporary and future climatic conditions. Community composition analyses revealed that volcanic streams hosted distinct stream communities composed of more cold‐water species compared with nonvolcanic streams. Scenario analyses based on multiple global climate models and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) revealed a geology‐related pattern of thermal habitat loss for cold‐water species. Nonvolcanic streams rapidly declined in thermally suitable habitats for lotic sculpins even under the lowest emission scenario (RCP 2.6). In contrast, most volcanic streams will be sustained below the thermal threshold, especially for low‐ and mid‐level emission scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5). However, the distinct stream community in volcanic streams and geology‐dependent habitat loss for lotic sculpins was not uniform and were more pronounced in streams with less summer precipitation or lower air temperatures. These findings highlight that underlying geology, climate variability, and their interaction should be considered simultaneously for the effective management of climate‐change refugia in mountain streams.

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Evaluation of Two Bias-Correction Methods for Gridded Climate Scenarios over Japan

Cited by 27 publications

References 21 publications

Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan

Projections of surface air temperature required to sustain permafrost and importance of adaptation to climate change in the Daisetsu Mountains, Japan

Influence of Climate Change on the Flood Disasters in Bursa, Turkey

Underlying geology and climate interactively shape climate change refugia in mountain streams

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