Evaluation of Tsunami Evacuation Plans for an Underground Mall Using an Agent-Based Model

Abstract

Tsunamis resulting from earthquakes can cause extensive damage, including infrastructure destruction, injuries, and fatalities. To address these risks, numerous tsunami evacuation simulations have been conducted to assess evacuation strategies and identify issues, particularly in Japan, where the Nankai Trough earthquake is anticipated, affecting underground malls in urban areas. Our previous research primarily focused on evacuating from underground to the surface, neglecting surface evacuation. Therefore, this study extended the previous study to include horizontal evacuation following the exit from the underground mall to ground level. It also considered the impact of pedestrian road crossings as interactions with vehicular traffic within the simulation to enhance realism and verify the evacuation risk. The study also explores scenarios where evacuation guide stairs are unavailable, comparing the effectiveness of alternative staircases in the evacuation plan. Results indicate that while using alternative staircases temporarily increases the number of evacuees reaching the surface, road crossings on evacuation routes become significant bottlenecks, leading to surface congestion and delayed evacuations. This raises doubts about the effectiveness of alternative staircases and highlights the need to consider alternative evacuation routes as a secondary plan. Additionally, the study reveals that reduced pedestrian flow at road crossings can significantly impact on evacuation times. Ultimately, this study demonstrated that achieving a short evacuation time from underground malls to the ground level might not always yield the best evacuation plan. It underscored the importance of considering aboveground factors in evacuation planning to ensure safety in the event of a tsunami caused by an earthquake.