Evaluation of the Weather Research and Forecasting model on forecasting low‐level jets: implications for wind energy

Abstract

Nocturnal low‐level jet (LLJ) events are commonly observed over the Great Plains region of the USA, thus making this region more favorable for wind energy production. At the same time, the presence of LLJs can significantly modify vertical shear and nocturnal turbulence in the vicinities of wind turbine hub height, and therefore has detrimental effects on turbine rotors. Accurate numerical modeling and forecasting of LLJs are thus needed for precise assessment of wind resources, reliable prediction of power generation and robust design of wind turbines. However, mesoscale numerical weather prediction models face a challenge in precisely forecasting the development, magnitude and location of LLJs. This is due to the fact that LLJs are common in nocturnal stable boundary layers, and there is a general consensus in the literature that our contemporary understanding and modeling capability of this boundary‐layer regime is quite poor. In this paper, we investigate the potential of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in forecasting LLJ events over West Texas and southern Kansas. Detailed observational data from both cases were used to assess the performance of the WRF model with different model configurations. Our results indicate that the WRF model can capture some of the essential characteristics of observed LLJs, and thus offers the prospect of improving the accuracy of wind resource estimates and short‐term wind energy forecasts. However, the core of the LLJ tended to be higher as well as slower than what was observed, leaving room for improvement in model performance. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Impacts of the low-level jet's negative wind shear on the wind turbine

“…The attempts to model atmospheric events, including LLJs, are not new. Storm et al (2009) conducted research to assess whether numerical weather prediction (NWP) models can replace expensive equipment such as meteorological towers in forecasting LLJs. They found that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was able to capture some of the main characteristics of the observed LLJ events; however, WRF proved to be inaccurate in predicting important LLJ features such as peak height and speed.…”

Wind power forecasting : state-of-the-art 2009.

“…In a very recent paper, Storm et al (2009) [51] studied the performance of the WRF model in the forecast of low-level jets (LLJs) in the U.S. plains, a common nighttime feature of the atmospheric flow that may lead to increased mean winds in the low troposphere, somewhere between 100 and 1,000 m and occasionally within reach of wind turbines. This study also found mixing results on NWP performance, with hints of a good representation of the essential features of the jets, indicating that the important driving processes are indeed considered by the model.…”

Downscaling the Impacts of Large-Scale LUCC on Surface Temperature along with IPCC RCPs: A Global Perspective

“…Thus, the scientific objective of this study is to estimate and compare the potential impacts of future large scale LUCC on surface temperature from a global perspective. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, as the latest-generation numerical weather prediction model [36][37][38], is used as an important tool to quantitatively analyze and compare the possible impacts of the future land use changes of different regions on the regional climate. Section 2 introduces the study areas, especially the characteristics of the dominant land use/cover and the tendency of LUCC.…”