Abstract:The increase in the wealth of information on the seismotectonic structure of the Marmara region after two devastating earthquakes (M7.6 Izmit and M7.2 Duzce events) in the year 1999 opened the way for the reassessment of the probabilistic seismic hazard in the light of new datasets. In this connection, the most recent findings and outputs of different national and international projects concerning seismicity and fault characterization in terms of geometric and kinematic properties are exploited in the present … Show more
“…only seismic source. The occurrence exceedance rates were set equal to 9.1⋅10 −3 y −1 , 5.9⋅10 −3 y −1 , and 4.0⋅10 −3 y −1 for M W 7.0, 7.2, and 7.4, respectively, according to representative values in the literature 15,61 .…”
Section: F I G U R E 9 Pgvmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…To accomplish a consistent comparison, in the GMPE‐based PSHA the background seismicity was neglected and the NAF segment shown in Figure 2 was taken as the only seismic source. The occurrence exceedance rates were set equal to 9.1·10 −3 y −1 , 5.9·10 −3 y −1 , and 4.0·10 −3 y −1 for M W 7.0, 7.2, and 7.4, respectively, according to representative values in the literature 15,61 .…”
A set of 3D physics-based numerical simulations (PBS) of possible earthquakes scenarios in Istanbul along the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) is considered in this article to provide a comprehensive example of application of PBS to probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and loss assessment in a large urban area. To cope with the high-frequency (HF) limitations of PBS, numerical results are first postprocessed by a recently introduced technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), providing broadband waveforms with a proper correlation of HF and low-frequency (LF) portions of ground motion as well as a proper spatial correlation of peak values also at HF, that is a key feature for the seismic risk application at urban scale. Second, before application to PSHA, a statistical analysis of residuals is carried out to ensure that simulated results provide a set of realizations with a realistic within-and between-event variability of ground motion. PBS results are then applied in a PSHA framework, adopting both the "generalized attenuation function" (GAF) approach, and a novel "footprint" (FP)based approach aiming at a convenient and direct application of PBS into PSHA. PSHA results from both approaches are then compared with those obtained from a more standard application of PSHA with empirical ground motion models. Finally, the probabilistic loss assessment of an extended simplified portfolio of buildings is investigated, comparing the results obtained adopting the different approaches: (i) GMPE, (ii) GAF, and (iii) FP. Only FP turned out to have the capability to account for the specific features of source and propagation path, while preserving the proper physically based spatial correlation characteristics, as required for a reliable loss estimate on a building portfolio spatially distributed over a large urban area. K E Y W O R D S 3D Physics-based numerical simulations, loss estimates of a distributed portfolio of assets, nearsource ground motion, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment 1 INTRODUCTION Being rooted in a PSHA framework, 23,27,28 this article aims at highlighting the impact of different approaches used to propagate ground motions from the seismic source to the site. On this regard, empirical ground motion prediction
“…only seismic source. The occurrence exceedance rates were set equal to 9.1⋅10 −3 y −1 , 5.9⋅10 −3 y −1 , and 4.0⋅10 −3 y −1 for M W 7.0, 7.2, and 7.4, respectively, according to representative values in the literature 15,61 .…”
Section: F I G U R E 9 Pgvmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…To accomplish a consistent comparison, in the GMPE‐based PSHA the background seismicity was neglected and the NAF segment shown in Figure 2 was taken as the only seismic source. The occurrence exceedance rates were set equal to 9.1·10 −3 y −1 , 5.9·10 −3 y −1 , and 4.0·10 −3 y −1 for M W 7.0, 7.2, and 7.4, respectively, according to representative values in the literature 15,61 .…”
A set of 3D physics-based numerical simulations (PBS) of possible earthquakes scenarios in Istanbul along the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) is considered in this article to provide a comprehensive example of application of PBS to probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and loss assessment in a large urban area. To cope with the high-frequency (HF) limitations of PBS, numerical results are first postprocessed by a recently introduced technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), providing broadband waveforms with a proper correlation of HF and low-frequency (LF) portions of ground motion as well as a proper spatial correlation of peak values also at HF, that is a key feature for the seismic risk application at urban scale. Second, before application to PSHA, a statistical analysis of residuals is carried out to ensure that simulated results provide a set of realizations with a realistic within-and between-event variability of ground motion. PBS results are then applied in a PSHA framework, adopting both the "generalized attenuation function" (GAF) approach, and a novel "footprint" (FP)based approach aiming at a convenient and direct application of PBS into PSHA. PSHA results from both approaches are then compared with those obtained from a more standard application of PSHA with empirical ground motion models. Finally, the probabilistic loss assessment of an extended simplified portfolio of buildings is investigated, comparing the results obtained adopting the different approaches: (i) GMPE, (ii) GAF, and (iii) FP. Only FP turned out to have the capability to account for the specific features of source and propagation path, while preserving the proper physically based spatial correlation characteristics, as required for a reliable loss estimate on a building portfolio spatially distributed over a large urban area. K E Y W O R D S 3D Physics-based numerical simulations, loss estimates of a distributed portfolio of assets, nearsource ground motion, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment 1 INTRODUCTION Being rooted in a PSHA framework, 23,27,28 this article aims at highlighting the impact of different approaches used to propagate ground motions from the seismic source to the site. On this regard, empirical ground motion prediction
“…For example, in the Mw7. 6 Izmit earthquake, 10 hospitals sufered severe damage, which led to a large-scale emergency transfer of casualties [4]. In the Mw8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, because several hospitals were damaged, the medical rescue had to be carried out in temporary hospitals [5].…”
The healthcare system is the bearer of treating the wounded and the victims of earthquakes. The functional integrity of the healthcare system is critical to the process of postearthquake medical rescue. Thus, the requirements for seismic resilience of the medical functions of the healthcare systems are increasing. Many studies have applied resilience research to address critical issues in the medical rescue of postearthquake casualties, such as medical diagnosis, emergency surgery, and intensive care. However, systematic construction is still lacking. System resilience is one of the most promising systemic management theories with great potential to address the abovementioned challenges. This article puts forward a scientific concept that system resilience can improve the efficiency of earthquake relief in medical rescue. Firstly, a scientific review of medical demand and medical resilience was conducted, summarizing resilience and resilience of healthcare system concepts. In addition, the postearthquake medical demand was reviewed, and the classification and distribution probability of postearthquake injuries were summarized. Furthermore, by reviewing the postearthquake medical rescue process, the weak points of each medical link were summarized. Combined with the key points in the medical rescue process, the application of resilience studies in the medical system is reviewed, and the progress of medical resilience is illustrated. In summary, combined with medical demand, the article provides some guidance for the deep integration between medical rescue processes and medical resilience and identifies the challenges of system resilience to reduce the waiting time of the injured future medical rescue in the earthquake.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.