Evaluation of the Predictive Performance of Regional and Global Ground Motion Predictive Equations for Shallow Active Regions in Pakistan

Abstract

Ground motion prediction equations are a key element of seismic hazard assessments. Pakistan lacks a robust ground motion prediction equation specifically developed using a Pakistan seismic ground motion databank. In this study, performance assessment of the ground motion prediction equations for usage in seismic hazard and risk studies in Pakistan, a seismically highly active region, is performed. In this study, an evaluation of the global ground motion prediction equations developed for the shallow active regions is carried out based on a databank of strong ground motion that was compiled in this study. Thirteen ground motion prediction equations were considered applicable, and their goodness of fit was evaluated using the databank of 147 peak ground acceleration of 27 shallow earthquakes in Pakistan. Residual analysis and three goodness of fit procedures were implemented in the evaluation of the equations. The results of this study suggest that global ground motion prediction equations can be applicable in the shallow active regions of Pakistan. These equations were developed based on data from Europe and the Middle East. Next Generation Attenuation West-2 equations were also applicable, but they did not perform as well as the European and Middle Eastern databank-derived equations. A total of four global equations were applicable in Pakistan. The best performing equation in this study should be applied with the highest weight, and the others should be applied with small weights on the logic tree to perform better. These equations can be employed in seismic hazard and risk assessment studies for disaster risk mitigation measures.

Landslide Susceptibility Evaluation Based on Potential Disaster Identification and Ensemble Learning

“…There may be numerous active landslides occurring over a wide region; thus, automatic recognition of active landslides can to a great degree improve the identification efficiency and provide an effective support for landslide prevention and control. Second, ground motion prediction has been a significant technique for seismic hazard and risk assessment and provides a crucial clue on earthquake risk mitigation [ 91 ]. In a region with intensive crustal movement, a landslide susceptibility map can be employed to predict the permanent ground displacement (PGD) triggered by an earthquake [ 2 ].…”

“…In a region with intensive crustal movement, a landslide susceptibility map can be employed to predict the permanent ground displacement (PGD) triggered by an earthquake [ 2 ]. The PGD, combined with the transient ground displacement, is a vital basis for earthquake risk evaluation and control [ 2 , 91 ].…”