Evaluation of the Potential Effects of Drought on Summer Maize Yield in the Western Guanzhong Plain, China

Abstract

Drought and uneven distribution of precipitation during stages of crop growth exert a severe reduction on crop yield. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the impact of drought on crop yields. In this study, data from a two-year (2016 and 2017) field experiment were used to calibrate and evaluate the parameters of the Decision Support System for the Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model. The evaluation model was then employed to analyze the impact of potential drought on the yield of summer maize (Zea mays L.) over different growth stages for 46 years (1970–2015). The simulated summer maize flowering and harvest date differed by three and one days of the observed in 2017. The d-index value and the normalized root-mean-square error (nRMSE) of the simulated and measured values were 0.90 and 3.72%, 0.95 and 10.21%, and 0.92 and 13.12%, for summer maize yield, soil water content, and leaf area index, respectively. This indicates that the parameters of the DSSAT model were extremely reliable and that the simulation results were better. The yield reduction of summer maize was concentrated within the range of 0–40% from 1970 to 2015, and the two-stage yield reduction was higher than the one-stage yield reduction. The highest probability of yield reduction occurs if drought occurs during jointing and heading stages. Irrigation is therefore recommended during jointing stage or heading stage. If local irrigation conditions permit, irrigation can be carried out both at the jointing and heading stages. This study provides a theoretical basis for drought resistance management and scientific irrigation of summer maize in the western Guanzhong plain.

A modified DSSAT‐CERES model for simulating summer maize growth under film mulching

“…The model calibration data use the phenological period and aboveground biomass of summer maize with plastic mulching in 2019, and the data for model validation use the LAI and soil water content (0-40 cm) of summer maize with plastic mulching in 2020. This study mainly debugs the parameters of the six summer maize genetic cultivars in the CERES-Maize model (Table 2), and the debugging method uses genetic algorithms (Shen, Chen, et al, 2020). Mean error (ME), coefficient of determination (R 2 ), and relative RMSE (nRMSE) were used to evaluate the relative difference between the simulated and observed values.…”

“…The decision support system for agricultural technology transfer (DSSAT) is one of most widely used crop models for yield prediction (Anar et al., 2019; Dokoohaki et al., 2015; Shen, Xu, et al., 2020; Yakoub et al., 2017), water management (Haberle & Svoboda, 2014; Ben Nouna et al., 2000; Saïdou et al., 2018), and drought reduction (L. Bai et al., 2004; Chen et al., 2013; Igbadun et al., 2008; Shen, Chen, et al., 2020). Crop environment resource synthesis (CERES), a module of DSSAT model, can simulate crop production parameters including growth period and dry matter allocation for crops such as rice ( Oryza sativa L.), maize, and wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.).…”

Deficit drip irrigation based on crop evapotranspiration and precipitation forecast improves water‐ use efficiency and grain yield of summer maize

“…10,20 In this region, the potential yield losses due to drought stress can be as high as 88%. 21 To make up for the shortage of precipitation and alleviate the negative effects of drought stress on maize, local farmers always apply irrigation using a border irrigation method at the jointing stage of summer maize. In fact, drought stress may occur at any stage of summer maize growth.…”

“…Previous studies have reported that water and high temperature stress could close crop stomata, which reduced the assimilation rate, and thereby decreased crop productivity 10,20 . In this region, the potential yield losses due to drought stress can be as high as 88% 21 . To make up for the shortage of precipitation and alleviate the negative effects of drought stress on maize, local farmers always apply irrigation using a border irrigation method at the jointing stage of summer maize.…”

Analyzing adaptation strategies for maize production under future climate change in Guanzhong Plain, China

“…Maize has been among the most prominent crops in China since the early twentieth century with almost 27% share in China's cereal economy. Shaanxi province is located in the northwest maize agroecological region of China (Meng et al 2006), and more than 50% of its cereal production comes from Guanzhong Plain (Shen et al 2020). Decline in maize yield has been predicted in the region due to climate change-induced higher seasonal temperature .…”