Evaluation of the Performance of CMIP6 Models in Reproducing Rainfall Patterns over North Africa

Babaousmail, Hassen; R, Hou; Ayugi, Brian; Ojara, Moses; Ngoma, Hamida; Karim, Rizwan; Rajasekar, Adharsh; Ongoma, Victor

doi:10.3390/atmos12040475

Cited by 72 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Regions located in the Mediterranean (located in the northern tip of Africa) showed significantly decreasing trends. This result is consistent with P [78] and T [27,76] trends over the north of Africa. The results of the linear trend values for SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 are close to each other and the same was found for higher emissions (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

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Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

Nooni

Hagan

Wang

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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The main goal of this study was to assess the interannual variations and spatial patterns of projected changes in simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in the 21st century over continental Africa based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) provided by the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM) model in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework. The projected spatial and temporal changes were computed for three time slices: 2020–2039 (near future), 2040–2069 (mid-century), and 2080–2099 (end-of-the-century), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that the spatial pattern of the projected ET was not uniform and varied across the climate region and under the SSP-RCPs scenarios. Although the trends varied, they were statistically significant for all SSP-RCPs. The SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 projected higher ET seasonality than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. In general, we suggest the need for modelers and forecasters to pay more attention to changes in the simulated ET and their impact on extreme events. The findings provide useful information for water resources managers to develop specific measures to mitigate extreme events in the regions most affected by possible changes in the region’s climate. However, readers are advised to treat the results with caution as they are based on a single GCM model. Further research on multi-model ensembles (as more models’ outputs become available) and possible key drivers may provide additional information on CMIP6 ET projections in the region.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…The humid-tropical zones (along with the Guinean coast) and the interior of the Cameroonian, Kenyan, and Ethiopian Highlands provided a comparatively similar mean ET. The ET pattern recorded is consistent with CMIP6 P patterns found in East Africa [77], North Africa [78] and Southern Africa [73].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 85%

Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

Nooni

Hagan

Wang

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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“…The TSS is a statistical summary of R, RMSD and STD, thus providing a single-value metric. The robustness of the abovementioned technique has been ascertained in previous studies (e.g., [57,62,63]).…”

Section: Model Performance and Rankingmentioning

confidence: 88%

Multi-Decadal Variability and Future Changes in Precipitation over Southern Africa

et al. 2021

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The future planning and management of water resources ought to be based on climate change projections at relevant temporal and spatial scales. This work uses the new regional demarcation for Southern Africa (SA) to investigate the spatio-temporal precipitation variability and trends of centennial-scale observation and modeled data, based on datasets from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The study employs several statistical methods to rank the models according to their precipitation simulation ability. The Theil–Sen slope estimator is used to assess precipitation trends, with a Student’s t-test for the significance test. The comparison of observation and model historical data enables identification of the best-performing global climate models (GCMs), which are then employed in the projection analysis under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The GCMs adequately capture the annual precipitation variation but with a general overestimation, especially over high-elevation areas. Most of the models fail to capture precipitation over the Lesotho-Eswatini area. The three best-performing GCMs over SA are FGOALS-g3, MPI-ESM1-2-HR and NorESM2-LM. The sub-regions demonstrate that precipitation trends cannot be generalized and that localized studies can provide more accurate findings. Overall, precipitation in the wet and dry seasons shows an initial increase during the near future over western and eastern SA, followed by a reduction in precipitation during the mid- and far future under both projection scenarios. Madagascar is expected to experience a decrease in precipitation amount throughout the twenty-first century.

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“…The two main projections utilized are drawn from Tier 1 ScenarioMIP: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Following the recommendations of previous studies (e.g., [57,[81][82][83][84][85]), this employs MME of CMIP6 for projection of extreme events over the study area. Many studies have remarked on the robustness of MME as compared to individual models due to cancellation of intermodel biases [59].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

Ayugi

Dike

Ngoma

et al. 2021

Water

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This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to evaluate extreme precipitation. Observed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) simulations are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons: March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The results show an increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) and decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) towards the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) relative to the baseline period (1995–2014) in both seasons. Moreover, simple daily intensity (SDII), very wet days (R95 p), very heavy precipitation >20 mm (R20 mm), and total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) demonstrate significant changes during OND compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while a reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes may pose a serious threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are recommended to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extreme incidences projected for relevant policies.

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Evaluation of the Performance of CMIP6 Models in Reproducing Rainfall Patterns over North Africa

Cited by 72 publications

References 53 publications

Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

Multi-Decadal Variability and Future Changes in Precipitation over Southern Africa

Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

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