Evaluation of the mid-market investment returns in real estate development when forecasting the housing market

Sternik, G.; Sternik, S. G.

doi:10.1134/s1075700717020113

Cited by 9 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…Evans [5], M. Braubach [6], and Yu Zhang et al [7], have contributed interesting perspectives and solutions regarding the relationship between the housing sector and demographic behavior, with topics ranging from health care to migration and family household development. In Russia and Kyrgyzstan, scientific opinions indicate that the development of the housing sector is significantly influenced by demographic trends [8][9][10][11][12], and studies have been conducted on the development of housing construction according to demographic indicators [13,14]. Additionally, the works of Grabovoi P.G.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the future of housing provision in a high-demographic growth region

Assylbayev,

Niiazalieva,

Bekjanov

et al. 2023

E3S Web Conf.

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This scientific article aims to determine the level of security of Kyrgyzstan citizens with regard to housing until 2030. The study takes into account the historical period from 1990 to present, analyzing the development of the housing stock and demographic population. The objective of this research is to solve the problem of housing provision for the population of the republic through effective management of the state’s housing and demographic strategy. The study focuses on the interdependence of population growth factors and the dynamics of the housing stock in the village-city context, using a general scientific methodology for analysis. The article presents a correlation analysis and a predictive review of demographic and housing aspects, accounting for the interdependent dynamics of population and housing. The main results include a mutual influence analysis between demographic and housing dynamics, as well as a comparative forecast of demographic and housing parameters until 2030. The study provides recommendations for the Republican housing program “My Home” for 2021-2026. This research is important for the practical applicability and relevance of regional policy on housing and demographic issues.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing the future of housing provision in a high-demographic growth region

Assylbayev,

Niiazalieva,

Bekjanov

et al. 2023

E3S Web Conf.

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“…Below, is the brief Moscow region case study analysis with regard to the implementation of this principle during the time period of 2013-2017 [14]. In 2014, the costs (investments in Moscow residential construction) somewhat increased compared with 2013 (from 272.8 to 280.2 billion rubles) due to an increase in the potential volume of construction (from 4.2 to 4.3 million sq.…”

Section: Housing Affordability As An Economic Indicatormentioning

confidence: 99%

Improvement of the Housing Conditions of the Population: Challenges of Achieving the National Goal

Sternik

2019

Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev.

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The article considers topical economic aspects of the development of the housing market as a sector of the national economy and complex socioeconomic system, specifically, financial mechanism of economic reproduction (formation of effective demand) in the housing market; expansion of economic and legal definitions of housing commissioning, improvement in housing conditions, and acquisition of dwelling, and the impact that dynamics of return on urban residential development has on sustainability of market functioning. Inferences and suggestions are formulated with respect to attainability of the national goal of an improvement in the housing situation of at least five million families annually, which was established by the May decree (ukase) of the President of the Russian Federation.

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“…В России методология научного прогнозирования рынка жилья начала развиваться более 20 лет назад, с момента старта рынка в новейшей экономической истории, в том числе с участием авторов настоящей работы. Авторами были разработаны и обоснованы варианты методики оценки среднерыночной текущей годовой доходности инвестиций в девелопмент жилой недвижимости в зависимости от характера и содержания исходных данных о затратах в используемых источниках (себестоимость строительства или полные инвестиционные затраты) [2].…”

Section: результаты ранее выполненных исследованийunclassified

Assessment of Average Market Investment Returns in Development of the Residential Real Estate in the Moscow Region

Sternik

Мирончук²,

Филатова

2019

Mir novoj jekonomiki

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In the previous work, G.M. Sternik and S.G. Sternik justified the options for the method of assessing the average current annual return on investment in residential real estate development, depending on the nature and content of the initial data on the costs contained in the sources of information (construction costs or total investment costs). Based on the analysis of the composition of the elements of development costs used in various data sources, we corrected the coefficients that allowed us to move from the assessment of the current annual return on investment in development in relation to the cost (full estimated cost) of construction to the assessment of the current annual return on investment in relation to the total investment costs. This calculation method was tested on the example of the housing market inMoscow. As a result, we concluded it is possible its use for investment management in the housing market. In this article, based on G.M. Sternik and S.G. Sternik’s methodology for assessing the return on investment into the development, and taking also into account the increase of information openness of the real estate market, we improved the calculation formulas, using new sources of the initial data, and recalculated the average market return on investment into the development of residential real estate in the Moscow region according to the data available for 2014–2017. We concluded that, since 2015, the average market return on investment takes negative values, i.e. the volume of investment in construction exceeds the revenue from sales in the primary market. However, in the second half of 2017, the indicator has increased to positive values, which was due to a greater extent of the decrease in the volume of residential construction in the region. The data obtained by us, together with the improved method of calculations, allow predicting with high reliability the potential of the development of the regional markets of primary housing for the purpose of investment and state planning of housing construction programs.

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Evaluation of the mid-market investment returns in real estate development when forecasting the housing market

Cited by 9 publications

References 0 publications

Analyzing the future of housing provision in a high-demographic growth region

Analyzing the future of housing provision in a high-demographic growth region

Improvement of the Housing Conditions of the Population: Challenges of Achieving the National Goal

Assessment of Average Market Investment Returns in Development of the Residential Real Estate in the Moscow Region

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