Evaluation of the impacts of human activities on propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Weihe River Basin, China

Zhang, Te; Su, Xiaoling; Zhang, Gengxi; Wu, Haijiang; Wang, Guanzhi; Chu, Jiangdong

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153030

Cited by 81 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…That is to say, human intervention can affect drought propagation through its impacts on land surface hydrological processes. The effects of human intervention on drought propagation for specific regions have been explored in some recent literature (Wang et al, 2021;Xu et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2022). For example, Zhang et al (2022) proposed a framework to evaluate the impacts of anthropogenic effects on drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Weihe River Basin.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The effects of human intervention on drought propagation for specific regions have been explored in some recent literature (Wang et al, 2021;Xu et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2022). For example, Zhang et al (2022) proposed a framework to evaluate the impacts of anthropogenic effects on drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Weihe River Basin. They found that human intervention did significantly affect drought propagation by increasing the frequency and extremes of hydrological drought and weakening its correlation with meteorological drought.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations

Troin

Shi

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

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Meteorological to hydrological drought propagation has been widely studied to reflect the relationship between these drought categories and better understand drought mechanisms. However, global warming may alter the drought propagation features, which are not fully understood. This study aims to investigate changes in meteorological and hydrological drought conditions, especially their propagation features in 1.5–3.0°C warmer climates for 8,655 watersheds globally. First, the three‐month scale standardized precipitation index and the standardized runoff index are calculated based on the precipitation simulated by the 15 global climate models and the runoff simulated by the four hydrological models, respectively. Drought events are then identified using the run theory, followed by the calculation of drought propagation features (i.e., pooling, lag, and lengthening) for matched meteorological and hydrological droughts. As a result, both meteorological and hydrological drought conditions (i.e., duration and severity) would relieve in warmer climates due to increased precipitation for regions excluding Western North America, South America, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, East Asia, and Australia. However, the drought conditions would be more severe during drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts over most regions. During drought propagation, the worsening drought conditions over half of the regions would be more serious first and then relieved with the rising temperature. These results indicate that efforts to slow down global warming can suppress the deterioration of drought conditions in the propagation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations

Troin

Shi

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

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“…AD is also delayed relative to MD [11]. Statistics and hydrological models are two basic methods for drought propagation analysis [28], such as the MCC method [2], cross-wavelet analysis [29] and the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model [30]. Effects of lag, attenuation, pooling and lengthening are common during the process of drought propagation [31,32].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Drought Propagation Characteristics and Influencing Factors in an Arid Region of Northeast Asia (ARNA)

Zhang

Yin

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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The characteristics of the drought propagation from meteorological drought (MD) to agricultural drought (AD) differ in various climatic and underlying surface conditions. However, how these factors affect the process of drought propagation is still unclear. In this study, drought propagation and influencing factors were investigated in an arid region of Northeast Asia (ARNA) during 1982–2014. Based on run theory, the drought characteristics were detected using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized soil moisture index (SMI), respectively. The propagation time from MD to AD was investigated, and the influence factors were identified. Results demonstrated that five clusters (C1–C5) based on land cover distribution were further classified by the K-means cluster algorithm to discuss the spatial and seasonal propagation variation. MD and AD in ARNA became more severe during the study period in all five clusters. The propagation times from MD to AD in all five clusters were shorter (1–3 months) in summer and autumn and longer (5–12 months) in spring and winter. This result suggested that the impact of vegetation on the seasonal drought propagation time was more obvious than that of the spatial drought propagation time. Precipitation and vegetation were the major impactors of AD in spring, summer and autumn (p < 0.05). The impact of precipitation on AD was more noticeable in summer, while vegetation mainly influenced AD in spring and autumn. The research also found that drought propagation time had a negative relationship (p < 0.05) with precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and NDVI in this region, which indicated that a rapid hydrological cycle and vegetation can shorten the propagation time from MD to AD. This study can help researchers to understand the drought propagation process and the driving factors to enhance the efficiency of drought forecasting.

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“…As copulas are flexible, joining arbitrary marginal distributions of variables, they have been widely employed by the hydrological research community in applications such as frequency analysis and risk assessment (De Michele et al, 2013;Hao et al, 2017;Liu et al, 2021b;Sarhadi et al, 2016;T. Zhang et al, 2021T. Zhang et al, , 2022Zhou et al, 2019), flood and runoff forecasting (Bevacqua et al, 2017b;Hemri et al, 2015;Liu et al, 2018;, and drought forecasting (Ganguli and Reddy, 2014;Wu et al, 2021b).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison between canonical vine copulas and a meta-Gaussian model for forecasting agricultural drought over China

Singh

et al. 2022

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Agricultural drought mainly stems from reduced soil moisture and precipitation, and it causes adverse impacts on the growth of crops and vegetation, thereby affecting agricultural production and food security. In order to develop drought mitigation measures, reliable agricultural drought forecasting is essential. In this study, we developed an agricultural drought forecasting model based on canonical vine copulas in three dimensions (3C-vine model) in which antecedent meteorological drought and agricultural drought persistence were utilized as predictors. Furthermore, a meta-Gaussian (MG) model was selected as a reference to evaluate the forecast skill. The agricultural drought in China in August of 2018 was selected as a typical case study, and the spatial patterns of 1- to 3-month lead forecasts of agricultural drought utilizing the 3C-vine model resembled the corresponding observations, indicating the good predictive ability of the model. The performance metrics – the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), the coefficient of determination (R2), and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) – showed that the 3C-vine model outperformed the MG model with respect to forecasting agricultural drought in August for diverse lead times. Moreover, the 3C-vine model exhibited excellent forecast skill with respect to capturing the extreme agricultural drought over different selected typical regions. This study may help to guide drought early warning, drought mitigation, and water resource scheduling.

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Evaluation of the impacts of human activities on propagation from meteorological drought to hydrological drought in the Weihe River Basin, China

Cited by 81 publications

References 45 publications

Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations

Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations

Evaluation of Drought Propagation Characteristics and Influencing Factors in an Arid Region of Northeast Asia (ARNA)

Comparison between canonical vine copulas and a meta-Gaussian model for forecasting agricultural drought over China

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