Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

Vautard, Robert; Christidis, Nikolaos; Ciavarella, Andrew; Alvarez-Castro, M. Carmen; Bellprat, Omar; Colfescu, Ioana; Cowan, Tim; Doblas‐Reyes, Francisco J.; Eden, Jonathan; Hauser, Mathias; Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Hempelmann, Nils; Klehmet, Katharina; Lott, Fraser C.; Nangini, Cathy; Orth, René; Radanovics, Sabine; Oldenborgh, Geert Jan van; Stott, Peter A.; Tett, Simon F. B.; Wilcox, Laura; Yiou, Pascal

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6

Cited by 45 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 64 publications

(10 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We then observe a surface drying, which can play a major role in the trend of other variables such as turbulent flows and thus can intensify or inhibit existing surface-atmosphere feedbacks. In Spain, Vicente-Serrano et al (2014) observe the same trends with an increase in temperature leading to a decrease in relative humidity which is not accompanied by an increase in the surface water vapour content. They show that these trends are related to two constraints: (1) a terrestrial constraint related to a decrease of the precipitation and a decrease of soil moisture; and (2) an oceanic constraint related to a limitation in the advection of moisture from ocean surfaces.…”

Section: Dynamical Thermodynamicalsupporting

confidence: 54%

Response to anonymous Referee#1 on“Recent trends in climate variability at the local scale using 40 years of observations: the case of the Paris region of France” by J. Ringard et al.

Ringard¹

2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

For several years, global warming has been unequivocal, leading to climate change at global, regional and local scales. A good understanding of climate characteristics and local variability is important for adaptation and response. Indeed, the contribution of local processes and their understanding in the context of warming are still very little studied and poorly represented in climate models. Improving the knowledge of surface-atmosphere feedback effects at local scales is therefore important for future projections. Using observed data in the Paris region from 1979 to 2017, this study characterizes the changes observed over the last 40 years for six climatic parameters (e.g. mean, maximum and minimum air temperature at 2 m, 2 m relative and specific humidities and precipitation) at the annual and seasonal scales and in summer, regardless of large-scale circulation, with an attribution of which part of the change is linked to large-scale circulation or thermodynamic. The results show that some trends differ from the ones observed at the regional or global scale. Indeed, in the Paris region, the maximum temperature increases faster than does the minimum temperature. The most significant trends are observed in spring and in summer, with a strong increase in temperature and a very strong decrease in relative humidity, while specific humidity and precipitation show no significant trends. The summer trends can be explained more precisely using large-scale circulation, especially regarding the evolution of the precipitation and specific humidity. The analysis indicates the important role of surface-atmosphere feedback in local variability and that this feedback is amplified or inhibited in a context of global warming, especially in an urban environment.

show abstract

Section: Dynamical Thermodynamicalsupporting

confidence: 54%

Response to anonymous Referee#1 on“Recent trends in climate variability at the local scale using 40 years of observations: the case of the Paris region of France” by J. Ringard et al.

Ringard¹

2019

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Unreliable simulations can lead to overstatements of risk (Bellprat and Doblas-Reyes 2016). Vautard et al (2017) present a broad evaluation of HadGEM3-A, concluding that it is, overall, a good tool for examining European precipitation and temperature extremes in summer. Here, we present analysis specifically relevant to summer 2012.…”

Section: Hadgem3-a Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change

et al. 2017

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Comparisons against observations may employ power spectra to assess the modelled variability (Christidis et al , ), Q–Q plots and standard statistical tests to assess the probability distribution (and its tails in particular) in historical periods and simple trend assessments for changes over larger timescales (Christidis and Stott, ). More in‐depth assessments may also delve into the representation of potentially important processes associated with the atmospheric circulation, land–atmosphere, or troposphere–stratosphere interactions (Vautard et al , ). Tailor‐made evaluation methodologies for analyses with atmosphere‐only models have also been proposed (Ciavarella et al , ).…”

Section: Cmip5 Index Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Over the last decade, the Hadley Centre has developed and utilized a state‐of‐the‐art extreme event attribution system with the view of integrating it into its developing climate services. The system has been built on the atmospheric model HadGEM3‐A (Christidis et al , ) and been subjected to meticulous evaluation assessments that have used a combination of standard as well as novel evaluation techniques (Ciavarella et al , ; Vautard et al , ). During the course of the EUropean CLimate and weather Events: Interpretation and Attribution (EUCLEIA) project (https://eucleia.eu/), the operationalization of the Hadley Centre's attribution system was prototyped, modelled after the structurally similar seasonal forecasting system that has been operational in the UK Met Office for several years.…”

Section: The Hadley Centre Attribution Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health

Christidis

Mitchell

Stott

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Increasing extreme temperatures linked to human influence amplify thermal stress and can lead to decreases in work productivity and increases in heat‐related mortality. However, studies assessing in a formal statistical way the contribution of climate change to such impacts remain sparse. Two new indices are introduced here that measure the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the intensity and frequency of health‐relevant heat extremes. Maximum daily temperature data from observations and climate models are used to compute annual index values in different regions around the world. The models employed in the study are evaluated against observational data and only the 10 best are retained for the analysis. Human‐induced warming that leads to an increase in heat‐related deaths has reached about a degree in all continents and is projected to exceed 3° by 2100. All regions currently experience at least 10 additional days per year when thermal deaths are expected to occur, but the number is several times higher in warmer tropical regions, where it is estimated to exceed 100 days by the end of the century. Significant positive trends may also arise in smaller‐scale areas, as shown for central England. Adaptation to the warmer present‐day climate would take the edge off the intensity of warming conducive to a rise in heat mortality by 2100, reducing it by about a degree, but would have a more moderate effect on the frequency of heat mortality days. Index values are also computed with data from the Hadley Centre's attribution system, and annual assessments of the associated impacts are made, which are envisaged to become part of a developing climate service. A first application to the United Kingdom for two recent years demonstrates the kind of attribution information that can be made available to users.

show abstract

Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe

Cited by 45 publications

References 64 publications

Response to anonymous Referee#1 on“Recent trends in climate variability at the local scale using 40 years of observations: the case of the Paris region of France” by J. Ringard et al.

Response to anonymous Referee#1 on“Recent trends in climate variability at the local scale using 40 years of observations: the case of the Paris region of France” by J. Ringard et al.

Multiple perspectives on the attribution of the extreme European summer of 2012 to climate change

Anthropogenic climate change and heat effects on health

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About