Evaluation of Statistical River Temperature Forecast Models for Fisheries Management

Hague, Merran J.; Patterson, David A.

doi:10.1080/02755947.2013.847879

Cited by 26 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…Standard model evaluation strategies are based on the quality of the fit between the measurements and the simulations (or forecasts). However, Hague and Patterson [28] suggest that this type of evaluation might not "aptly evaluate" a model's performance when it comes to water temperature modeling for fisheries management. They suggest looking at the capacity of a model to predict a threshold exceedance instead of solely focusing on the traditional best fit.…”

Section: Forecasts Verification and Explicit Consideration Of Uncertamentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems

Ouellet-Proulx

St‐Hilaire

Boucher

2017

Water

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Abstract:In some hydrological systems, mitigation strategies are applied based on short-range water temperature forecasts to reduce stress caused to aquatic organisms. While various uncertainty sources are known to affect thermal modeling, their impact on water temperature forecasts remain poorly understood. The objective of this paper is to characterize uncertainty induced to water temperature forecasts by meteorological inputs in two hydrological contexts. Daily ensemble water temperature forecasts were produced using the CEQUEAU model for the Nechako (regulated) and Southwest Miramichi (natural) Rivers for 1-5-day horizons. The results demonstrate that a larger uncertainty is propagated to the thermal forecast in the unregulated river (0.92-3.14 • C) than on the regulated river (0.73-2.29 • C). Better performances were observed on the Nechako with a mean continuous ranked probability score (MCRPS) <0.85 • C for all horizons compared to the Southwest Miramichi (MCRPS ≈ 1 • C). While informing the end-user on future thermal conditions, the ensemble forecasts provide an assessment of the associated uncertainty and offer an additional tool to river managers for decision-making.

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Section: Forecasts Verification and Explicit Consideration Of Uncertamentioning

confidence: 99%

Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems

Ouellet-Proulx

St‐Hilaire

Boucher

2017

Water

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“…The present study illustrates the importance of retaining protected areas in which catch-and-release fishing is prohibited, rather than implementing size limits or catch quotas that do not eliminate capture-related stresses. This study also suggests that phenotypic diversity in coral grouper populations may be bolstered by temporary fishing closures when water temperatures exceed a threshold level, as is the case in some salmonid fisheries6465. This may represent a more agile management strategy that avoids many of the complications associated with establishing and policing MPAs.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Rising temperatures may drive fishing-induced selection of low-performance phenotypes

Messmer

Tobin

Hoey

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

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Climate warming is likely to interact with other stressors to challenge the physiological capacities and survival of phenotypes within populations. This may be especially true for the billions of fishes per year that undergo vigorous exercise prior to escaping or being intentionally released from fishing gear. Using adult coral grouper (Plectropomus leopardus), an important fisheries species throughout the IndoPacific, we show that population-level survival following vigorous exercise is increasingly compromised as temperatures increase from current-day levels (100-67% survival at 24-30 °C) to those projected for the end of the century (42% survival at 33 °C). Intriguingly, we demonstrate that high-performance individuals take longer to recover to a resting metabolic state and subsequently have lower survival in warm water compared with conspecifics that exercise less vigorously. Moreover, we show that postexercise mortality of high-performance phenotypes manifests after 3-13 d at the current summer maximum (30 °C), while mortality at 33 °C occurs within 1.8-14.9 h. We propose that wild populations in a warming climate may become skewed towards low-performance phenotypes with ramifications for predator-prey interactions and community dynamics. Our findings highlight the susceptibility of phenotypic diversity to fishing activities and demonstrate a mechanism that may contribute to fishinginduced evolution in the face of ongoing climate change.Anthropogenic carbon emissions and modified land use have directly contributed to increases in the surface temperature of the planet since the beginning of the industrial revolution 1 . Aquatic systems have absorbed the majority of the excess heat added to the atmosphere, which has led to a warming of the global sea surface by 0.4 °C in the past century with an additional 0.6-2.0 °C expected by 2100 1,2 . Concomitant with the background warming, there is evidence that extreme shorter-term temperature spikes (e.g., daily, seasonal) are becoming more frequent in many aquatic systems, presenting a more immediate thermal challenge for aquatic organisms 1,3-5 . While the direct effects of environmental warming on the survival, ecology and physiology of aquatic organisms are becoming clearer 3,6-8 , it is generally accepted that other stressors can work interactively with temperature to increase stress and reduce survival 9,10 . The future performance of aquatic organisms is therefore dependent upon the combined impacts of multiple stressors working simultaneously as the environment continues to change.Exercise is critical for optimising fitness through processes such as food capture, predator avoidance and reproduction. Nevertheless, exercise often induces physiological, biochemical and behavioural disturbances that require significant durations to recover to baseline levels [11][12][13][14][15] . Thus, the interplay between climate warming and exercise is a critical consideration in helping to understand long-term climate impacts on animal populations, yet one that has received ...

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“…Elevation, percent canopy, mean channel gradient, cumulative drainage area, latitude, percentage of the catchment area classified as open water, and base flow index were used as fixed site-specific covariates attributed to the location of each temperature logger (Isaak et al 2014). In addition to fixed-site variables, mean daily discharge and precipitation and daily maximum and minimum air temperatures were covariates in the model associated with each day during the summers 2013 and 2014 (Hague and Patterson 2014). Average daily discharge (m 3 /s) of the SFCR was acquired from the U.S. Geological Survey gauging station located in Stites, Idaho.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influences of Summer Water Temperatures on the Movement, Distribution, and Resource Use of Fluvial Westslope Cutthroat Trout in the South Fork Clearwater River Basin

Dobos

Corsi

Schill

et al. 2016

N American J Fish Manag

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Although many Westslope Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi populations in Idaho are robust and stable, population densities in some systems remain below management objectives. In many of those systems, such as in the South Fork Clearwater River (SFCR) system, environmental conditions (e.g., summer temperatures) are hypothesized to limit populations of Westslope Cutthroat Trout. Radiotelemetry and snorkeling methods were used to describe seasonal movement patterns, distribution, and habitat use of Westslope Cutthroat Trout in the SFCR during the summers of 2013 and 2014. Sixty‐six radio transmitters were surgically implanted into Westslope Cutthroat Trout (170–405 mm TL) from May 30–June 25, 2013, and June 20–July 6, 2014. Sedentary and mobile summer movement patterns by Westslope Cutthroat Trout were observed in the SFCR. Westslope Cutthroat Trout were generally absent from the lower SFCR. In the upper region of the SFCR, fish generally moved from the main‐stem SFCR into tributaries as water temperatures increased during the summer. Fish remained in the middle region of the SFCR where water temperatures were cooler than in the upper or lower regions of the SFCR. A spatially explicit water temperature model indicated that the upper and lower regions of the SFCR exceeded thermal tolerance levels of Westslope Cutthroat Trout throughout the summer. During snorkeling, 23 Westslope Cutthroat Trout were observed in 13 sites along the SFCR and at low density (mean ± SD, 0.0003 ± 0.0001 fish/m2). The distribution of fish observed during snorkeling was consistent with the distribution of radio‐tagged fish in the SFCR during the summer. Anthropogenic activities (i.e., grazing, mining, road construction, and timber harvest) in the SFCR basin likely altered the natural flow dynamics and temperature regime and thereby limited stream habitat in the SFCR system for Westslope Cutthroat Trout. Received June 15, 2015; accepted December 21, 2015 Published online May 16, 2016

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Evaluation of Statistical River Temperature Forecast Models for Fisheries Management

Cited by 26 publications

References 53 publications

Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems

Water Temperature Ensemble Forecasts: Implementation Using the CEQUEAU Model on Two Contrasted River Systems

Rising temperatures may drive fishing-induced selection of low-performance phenotypes

Influences of Summer Water Temperatures on the Movement, Distribution, and Resource Use of Fluvial Westslope Cutthroat Trout in the South Fork Clearwater River Basin

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