Evaluation of statistical models for rainfall at rars: Jagitial

Abstract

In general, the amount of rainfall and its frequency impacts agricultural, ecological, hydrological, economic and living systems. Rainfall is one of the important factors in agriculture. It plays a major role in the growth and development of the crop starting from germination to harvesting. Change in pattern of rainfall will lead to unexpected responses from plant. Thus, farmers in India were facing problems, as most of the crops grown under rainfed condition. Since precipitation is unpredictable, the present study was undertaken to analyse the distribution pattern of rainfall and to know effect of other weather parameters like maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, evaporation etc. on rainfall. The latest 31 years secondary data pertaining to weather parameters was collected from RARS, Jagitial, Telangana. For the convenience of analysis data has been divided into 3 major data sets viz. Annual, Monsoon seasonal months and Standard Meteorological weeks. The results based on Kolmogorov Smirnov and RMSE tests indicated Exponential distribution was best fitted distribution for most of the data sets. Exponential distribution was best fit for annual and seasonal months, while for SMW's Exponential and Pearson type III were best fitted.