Evaluation of Spectral Wave Models Physics as Applied to a 100‐Year Southern Hemisphere Extra‐Tropical Cyclone Sea State

Abstract

Extreme significant wave height estimates, and their probability of exceedance, are fundamental offshore and coastal engineering design parameters. These estimates are characterised by uncertainty due to an incomplete understanding of the atmosphere‐ocean energy and momentum exchanges during intense storms. This particularly affects extreme wave statistics of ocean regions exposed to large and frequent synoptic disturbances such as Extra‐Tropical Cyclones (ETCs). In this work, we assessed the performance of global phase‐averaged spectral wave models in representing the 1 in 100‐year sea state generated by a Southern Ocean ETC in April 2021. We collected in‐situ and remote sensing observations, from the storm generation region to its decaying phase and the impact on South‐East Australian coastlines. We compared the observations with a suite of reanalysis and hindcast global wave model datasets. While comparing well for wind speed up to 20 m/s, the models presented differences in solving the air‐sea momentum exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean for wind speed velocities between 20 and 35 m/s, which are a distinctive characteristic of ETCs. Despite marked differences in the storm generation region, the models converged to a similar representation of the swell systems impacting the South‐East Australian coastlines, as demonstrated by a comparison with deep‐water buoy observations close to the coastlines. Furthermore, we found that the energy of the ERA5 reanalysis, which assimilates satellite wave height measurements is quickly dispersed and, as such, of little advantage in representing the 9.9 m significant wave heights that impacted the South‐East Australian coastlines on April 10th 2021.