Evaluation of Premature Mortality Caused by Exposure to PM2.5 and Ozone in East Asia: 2000, 2005, 2020

Amin, Nur; Yamashita, Ken; Ohara, Toshimasa; Kurokawa, Junichi; Yamaji, Katsuhiko

doi:10.1007/s11270-012-1123-7

Cited by 59 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Increases in disease burden, despite air quality improvements, have also been estimated in previous studies. 7,25,26 A study 27 that constructed model projections on a global scale indicated that there would be a substantial increase in mortality associated with outdoor air pollution from 2010 to 2050.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of PM2·5-associated disease burden in China in 2020 and 2030 using population and air quality scenarios: a modelling study

Wang

Zhou

et al. 2019

The Lancet Planetary Health

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Background Air pollution and its adverse effects on public health remain a considerable problem in China, where policies have been implemented to improve the situation. We aimed to estimate the disease burden associated with particulate matter (PM) 2·5 across China for 2020 and 2030 to identify the populations and regions most at risk, quantify the health benefits of air quality improvement targets, and determine the effect of population growth and ageing on this disease burden. Methods In this modelling study, we investigated premature deaths associated with PM 2·5 across China on the basis of air quality scenarios proposed by the expert group involved in the formulation of the 13th Five-Year Plan for Eco-Environmental Protection and population scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We used the integrated exposure-response model used for the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate the number of PM 2·5 -related premature deaths under each scenario. Findings The projected health benefits of the air-quality-improving targets are substantial, and could reduce the number of PM 2.5 -related premature deaths in China by approximately 129 278 by 2020 and 217 988 by 2030, compared with 2010. However, since China's population is increasing and ageing, the number of PM 2.5 -related premature deaths was estimated to increase by 84 102 by 2020 and by 244 191 by 2030, indicating that the health benefits induced by air quality improvements could be offset by the effect of the population increasing in size and ageing.Interpretation To reduce the future disease burden in China, targets that are stricter than the interim target and stringent policies to improve air quality and protect public health are needed, especially for at-risk population groups, such as older individuals (aged >55 years) and patients with cardiovascular diseases, particularly in regions with a high disease burden.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of PM2·5-associated disease burden in China in 2020 and 2030 using population and air quality scenarios: a modelling study

Wang

Zhou

et al. 2019

The Lancet Planetary Health

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“…Air quality models, such as the community multi-scale air quality model (CMAQ), simulate pollution concentrations based on emission inventories and chemical and physical processes driven by a meteorological model, such as the weather research and forecasting model (WRF) [30], and can provide exposure estimates with spatiotemporally complete coverage [31,32]. However, the accuracy of air quality models depends on the uncertainty of emission inventories and meteorological inputs and has thus been reported to vary with seasons and locations [33].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Fusing Observational, Satellite Remote Sensing and Air Quality Model Simulated Data to Estimate Spatiotemporal Variations of PM2.5 Exposure in China

et al. 2017

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Estimating ground surface PM 2.5 with fine spatiotemporal resolution is a critical technique for exposure assessments in epidemiological studies of its health risks. Previous studies have utilized monitoring, satellite remote sensing or air quality modeling data to evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of PM 2.5 concentrations, but such studies rarely combined these data simultaneously. Through assembling techniques, including linear mixed effect regressions with a spatial-varying coefficient, a maximum likelihood estimator and the spatiotemporal Kriging together, we develop a three-stage model to fuse PM 2.5 monitoring data, satellite-derived aerosol optical depth (AOD) and community multi-scale air quality (CMAQ) simulations together and apply it to estimate daily PM 2.5 at a spatial resolution of 0.1 • over China. Performance of the three-stage model is evaluated using a cross-validation (CV) method step by step. CV results show that the finally fused estimator of PM 2.5 is in good agreement with the observational data (RMSE = 23.0 µg/m 3 and R 2 = 0.72) and outperforms either AOD-derived PM 2.5 (R 2 = 0.62) or CMAQ simulations (R 2 = 0.51). According to step-specific CVs, in data fusion, AOD-derived PM 2.5 plays a key role to reduce mean bias, whereas CMAQ provides spatiotemporally complete predictions, which avoids sampling bias caused by non-random incompleteness in satellite-derived AOD. Our fused products are more capable than either CMAQ simulations or AOD-based estimates in characterizing the polluting procedure during haze episodes and thus can support both chronic and acute exposure assessments of ambient PM 2.5 . Based on the products, averaged concentration of annual exposure to PM 2.5 was 55.7 µg/m 3 , while averaged count of polluted days (PM 2.5 > 75 µg/m 3 ) was 81 across China during 2014. Fused estimates will be publicly available for future health-related studies.

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“…BC emissions are almost entirely anthropogenic and 90 % of BC emissions are due to diesel engines, industry, residential burning and open burning (Bond et al, 2013). The impact of SLPs on air quality occurs at both the local and regional scales with episodes of high concentrations of pollutants, notably ozone and aerosol particulate matter (PM), having serious effects on human health and leading to premature deaths (Nawahda et al, 2012). For example, Anenberg et al (2012) estimated that air pollution caused around quarter of a million deaths from lung cancer worldwide in 2010.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-model evaluation of short-lived pollutant distributions over east Asia during summer 2008

et al. 2016

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Abstract. The ability of seven state-of-the-art chemistryaerosol models to reproduce distributions of tropospheric ozone and its precursors, as well as aerosols over eastern Asia in summer 2008, is evaluated. The study focuses on the performance of models used to assess impacts of pollutants on climate and air quality as part of the EU ECLIPSE project. Models, run using the same ECLIPSE emissions, are compared over different spatial scales to in situ surface, vertical profiles and satellite data. Several rather clear biases are found between model results and observations, including overestimation of ozone at rural locations downwind of the main emission regions in China, as well as downwind over the Pacific. Several models produce too much ozone over polluted regions, which is then transported downwind. Analysis points to different factors related to the ability of models to simulate VOC-limited regimes over polluted regions and NO x limited regimes downwind. This may also be linked to biases compared to satellite NO 2 , indicating overestimation of NO 2 over and to the north of the northern China Plain emission region. On the other hand, model NO 2 is too low to the south and west of this region and over South Korea/Japan. Overestimation of ozone is linked to systematic underestimation of CO particularly at rural sites and downwind of the main Chinese emission regions. This is likely to be due to enhanced destruction of CO by OH. Overestimation of Asian ozone and its transport downwind impliesPublished by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. With regard to aerosols, most models reproduce the satellite-derived AOD patterns over eastern China. Our study nevertheless reveals an overestimation of ECLIPSE model mean surface BC and sulphate aerosols in urban China in summer 2008. The effect of the short-term emission mitigation in Beijing is too weak to explain the differences between the models. Our results rather point to an overestimation of SO 2 emissions, in particular, close to the surface in Chinese urban areas. However, we also identify a clear underestimation of aerosol concentrations over northern India, suggesting that the rapid recent growth of emissions in India, as well as their spatial extension, is underestimated in emission inventories. Model deficiencies in the representation of pollution accumulation due to the Indian monsoon may also be playing a role. Comparison with vertical aerosol lidar measurements highlights a general underestimation of scattering aerosols in the boundary layer associated with overestimation in the free troposphere pointing to modelled aerosol lifetimes that are too long. This is likely linked to too strong vertical transport and/or insufficient deposition efficiency during transport or export from the boundary layer, rather than chemical processing (in the case of sulphate aerosols). Underestimation of sulphate in the boundary layer implies potentially large errors in simulated aerosol-cloud interactions, via impacts on boundary-layer clouds...

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Evaluation of Premature Mortality Caused by Exposure to PM2.5 and Ozone in East Asia: 2000, 2005, 2020

Cited by 59 publications

References 24 publications

Estimation of PM2·5-associated disease burden in China in 2020 and 2030 using population and air quality scenarios: a modelling study

Estimation of PM2·5-associated disease burden in China in 2020 and 2030 using population and air quality scenarios: a modelling study

Fusing Observational, Satellite Remote Sensing and Air Quality Model Simulated Data to Estimate Spatiotemporal Variations of PM2.5 Exposure in China

Multi-model evaluation of short-lived pollutant distributions over east Asia during summer 2008

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