The purpose of this retrospective study was to analyze changes in the position of the condyles following mandibular setback surgery with manual guidance. The study included 28 patients with mandibular prognathism who underwent mandibular setback surgery using manual guidance with a bioabsorbable mesh for mandibular fixation, and changes in the position of the center of the condylar head were compared at three time points: before surgery (T0), within 1 week after surgery (T1), and 6 months after surgery (T2). The results showed significant lateral, anterior, and inferior movements of the condyle at T1 compared to T0, with an average movement of 0.66 ± 0.84 mm along the x-axis, −1.27 ± 0.82 mm along the y-axis, and −0.20 ± 0.69 mm along the z-axis, with a 1.77 ± 0.87 mm linear distance (p < 0.05). At T2, the condylar position had mainly changed inferiorly along the y-axis (−0.17 ± 0.48 mm) (p < 0.05) compared to that at T0. The change in the position along the x-axis (−0.14 ± 0.57 mm), z-axis (−0.05 ± 0.68 mm), and linear distance (0.85 ± 0.57 mm) at T2 was not significantly different from that in the condylar position at T0 (p > 0.05). The study suggests that significant anterior–lateral–inferior condylar movement occurs within 1 week after mandibular setback surgery using manual guidance, but the condyle returns to its original position over time, which is clinically acceptable.