Evaluation of Outage and Surplus Power due to Forecast Error of Photovoltaic Generation Output

Masuta, Taisuke; Oozeki, Takashi; Fonseca, Joao Gari da Silva; Murata, Akinobu

doi:10.1541/ieejpes.134.286

Cited by 19 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…Other approaches have been described in the literature [16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] for predicting solar radiation from GPV data and extraterrestrial horizontal solar radiation intensity for the target period.…”

Section: Forecasting Using a Physical Model This Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Yatsubo

Miyake

Takada

2018

IEEJ Transactions Elec Engng

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In recent years, Japan has rapidly extended its use of electricity obtained via photovoltaic (PV) generation. When the proportion of PV in the generation mix was small, its unpredictable output fluctuations had little effect on the supply and demand operation. However, as the role of PV in grid supply grows, predicting these fluctuations becomes increasingly necessary to ensure stable and economical operation of the electric power system. In this study, we discuss the current approaches of estimating and forecasting the PV output. PrefaceElectricity supply networks must balance the supply capacity with the fluctuating demand. Capacity is adjusted by bringing power stations on-and off-line and changing the power generated. However, the price of electricity from different units varies according to the generation method used and, therefore, it is necessary to seek the most economical combination at any demand level [1].Recent years have seen an expansion in the role played by renewable energy in Japan as the country attempts to build a low-carbon society. These renewable energy sources are clean and sustainable and do not emit greenhouse gases, but their output fluctuates in response to the weather conditions, posing challenges to the stability of the supply system. Photovoltaic (PV) generation is an example of the most widely deployed renewable source, so the transmission departments of power companies are investigating and deploying various measures to support demand/supply balancing in a system with a large PV component [2].In this study, we discuss the challenges that this poses and the approaches currently being pursued. However, the generation units that can be directly observed by telemetry from the central load dispatching center of a power company are limited to those interconnected with power lines of 60 kV or greater, which excludes most of the grid-connected PV. New techniques are therefore needed to monitor (estimate) the power generated by PV units. Necessity of Estimating and Forecasting PV outputIn the case of PV, abrupt fluctuations in output can be caused by short-term changes in weather conditions. These are too brief to be predicted from the daily weather forecast alone. Load balancing requires thermal power stations, hydroelectric generation, and pumped storage to be ramped up or run down to compensate for these abrupt fluctuations in the PV output.With the high penetration of PV, the grid operators may no longer be able to ensure constant power supply because thermal and hydroelectric generation constitutes a smaller proportion of the generation mix.In particular, mid-merit-order thermal stations, which play a key role in supply balancing, require several hours to bring the power units off or on line, making it necessary to evolve precise shortterm forecasting of PV output and ensure low power generation costs. PV Output Estimation TechnologyThe output of a PV unit can be calculated by multiplying the solar radiation intensity at the installation location by the conversion efficiency of the P...

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Section: Forecasting Using a Physical Model This Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Yatsubo

Miyake

Takada

2018

IEEJ Transactions Elec Engng

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“…Constraints taken into account pertain to operating reserve margin, demand-supply balance, upper and lower limits on the generator's output, LFC regulation capacity, and PV priority dispatching. 6 The constraint on demand-supply balance with regard to BESS charge/discharge is shown in Equation (21):…”

Section: Uc Of Thermal Generatorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coordinated Operation of Battery Energy Storage System and Thermal Generators for Supply-Demand Balance Maintenance and Efficient Use of Photovoltaic Energy

2019

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In future power systems with extremely large integration of photovoltaic (PV) generation, it is necessary to not only properly maintain supply-demand balance without power shortfall but also utilize as much PV energy as possible. The application of PV power forecast and energy storage devices to power system operation is necessary.In this study, we propose a method for determining and modifying the charging and discharging schedule of a battery energy storage system (BESS) and the unit commitment of thermal generators based on the PV power forecast. The proposed method is evaluated by numerical simulations for one year. The results show that both the energy shortfall and PV curtailment can be reduced by the proposed method. K E Y W O R D S battery energy storage system (BESS), economic load dispatching control (EDC), photovoltaic (PV) generation, PV power forecast, unit commitment (UC) 28

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“…It should be added that in this paper, the LFC capacity is configured to secure 3% of the hourly average of power demand .…”

Section: Uc–edc–lfc Simulation Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a preliminary study on the supply–demand management for the power system with massive PVCs installed, UC‐EDC–based model is used for investigating the effects of PVS output prediction error on the operation schedule for the following day, and so on . It is, however, a challenging task to properly assess the prediction errors of PVS output short‐cycle variation or ramp event with the computation time‐step of 30 min to 1 h of the model to be applied for the above.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Study on Influence of Ramp Event of Aggregated Power Output of Photovoltaic Power Generation on Electric Power System Frequency

Kato

Manabe

Funabashi

et al. 2017

Electrical Engineering Japan

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SUMMARY This paper examines the influence of aggregated power output fluctuation of photovoltaic power generation system (PVS) on the power system frequency focusing on ramp events of aggregated PVS power output. A numerical simulation model of economic load dispatching control (EDC) and load frequency control (LFC) is used together with a PVS power output forecasting model and a unit commitment (UC) scheduling model developed in our preceding study. As a result, in the case of ramp event with long duration and high ramp rate, the frequency violation occurs when the power output of controllable generators with high load‐following capability reaches to upper/lower limit even if the power output of low load‐following capability generators is still available. If the load dispatching scheme is tentatively changed from the conventional EDC using an equal incremental fuel cost rule to, for example, a dispatching policy based on the capacity without the consideration of fuel cost, the aggregated load‐following capability can be kept, avoiding the frequency violation.

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Evaluation of Outage and Surplus Power due to Forecast Error of Photovoltaic Generation Output

Cited by 19 publications

References 3 publications

Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Technologies for estimation and forecasting of photovoltaic generation output supporting stable operation of electric power system

Coordinated Operation of Battery Energy Storage System and Thermal Generators for Supply-Demand Balance Maintenance and Efficient Use of Photovoltaic Energy

A Study on Influence of Ramp Event of Aggregated Power Output of Photovoltaic Power Generation on Electric Power System Frequency

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