Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East

Abstract

This study investigates four types of synoptic dust events in the Middle East region, including cyclonic, pre-frontal, post-frontal and Shamal dust storms. For each of these types, three intense and pervasive dust events are analyzed from a synoptic meteorological and numerical simulation perspective. The performance of 9 operational dust models in forecasting these dust events in the Middle East is qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated against Terra-MODIS observations and AERONET measurements during the dust events. The comparison of model AOD outputs with Terra-MODIS retrievals reveals that despite the significant discrepancies, all models have a relatively acceptable performance in forecasting the AOD patterns in the Middle East. The models enable to represent the high AODs along the dust plumes, although they underestimate them, especially for cyclonic dust storms. In general, the outputs of the NASA-GEOS and DREAM8-MACC models present greater similarity with the satellite and AERONET observations in most of the cases, also exhibiting the highest correlation coefficient, although it is difficult to introduce a single model as the best for all cases. Model AOD predictions over the AERONET stations showed that DREAM8-MACC exhibited the highest R2 of 0.78, followed by NASA_GEOS model (R2 = 0.74), which both initially use MODIS data assimilation. Although the outputs of all models correspond to valid time more than 24 h after the initial time, the effect of data assimilation on increasing the accuracy is important. The different dust emission schemes, soil and vegetation mapping, initial and boundary meteorological conditions and spatial resolution between the models, are the main factors influencing the differences in forecasting the dust AODs in the Middle East.

Socio-Environmental Determinants and Human Health Exposures in Arid and Semi-Arid Zones of Iran—Narrative Review

“… 35 It is important to remark that Dasht Kavir and Lut deserts with complex topography and known as having strong seasonal winds that are directly responsible for atmospheric circulation of air movement the large-scale area. 36 However, complex topography creates ideal conditions for transport of pollutants due to weather conditions and long-range emissions. Particle matter (PM) is one of the most remarkable pollutants that has been emitted from various sources such as volcanos and seismic activities, wild-land fires and etc.…”

Large-Scale Saharan Dust Episode in April 2019: Study of Desert Aerosol Loads over Sofia, Bulgaria, Using Remote Sensing, In Situ, and Modeling Resources

“…Figure 5a shows diagrams of dust concentration and dust load referring to the end of that day, a few hours after the end of the lidar measurements. This is done in order to better reveal the height distribution of the dust concentration, for the purpose of comparing it with the lidar height profiles obtained by us, taking into account the space/time uncertainties of the model, particularly in the dust frontal area [34,[86][87][88]. The left-hand part of the color chart shows the wind field of the deep low from the northwest, which causes an extensive vortex in the region of Southwestern Sahara over the territories of Western Sahara, Mauritania, Mali, and Niger, giving rise to the possibility of large masses of dust being lifted.…”

On the Existence of Summer Shamal Wind Induced by the Zagros Mountains in the Middle East

“…The formation of low‐level jets in the two preferred areas of the SHW is the fundamental cause of most summer dust storm events in the ME (Ali, 1994; Francis et al., 2017; Mofidi & Jafari, 2011). Although we witness different types of dust storms, including frontal (pre‐frontal and post‐frontal), cyclonic, convective, and Shamal dust storms due to different formation mechanisms and synoptic patterns throughout the year (Hamzeh et al., 2021; Karami et al., 2021; Mohammadpour et al., 2021), however, the intraseasonal variation and interannual activity of dust storms in the corridor of eastern Iraq are directly related to the Spatio‐temporal variability of the SSW and its NLLJ core in MP during the summer and at the peak of dust activity (Ali, 1994; Al senafi & Anis, 2015; Najafi et al., 2017; Pye, 1987; Yu et al., 2013, 2015, 2016).…”

“…The SHW and its regional effects concerning dust activities have been widely studied in the last decades (Ali, 1994;Goudie, 2001;Goudie & Middleton, 2006;Hamzeh et al, 2021;Hassani, 2016;Houseman, 1961;Karami et al, 2021;Mohammadpour et al, 2021Mohammadpour et al, , 2022Notaro et al, 2013;Pye, 1987;Rashki et al, 2019;Yu et al, 2016), whereas the regional-scale circulation that governs the formation and development of SSW is less well understood. In one of the few studies, MEM83 suggested that the SSW is the result of a simultaneous establishment of a semi-permanent high-pressure cell in northern Saudi Arabia, and a trough on the lee of the ZAG, which is connected to heat low over Pakistan and Afghanistan.…”