Evaluation of Model-Based PM_2.5 Estimates for Exposure Assessment during Wildfire Smoke Episodes in the Western U.S.

Abstract

Investigating the health impacts of wildfire smoke requires data on people’s exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) across space and time. In recent years, it has become common to use machine learning models to fill gaps in monitoring data. However, it remains unclear how well these models are able to capture spikes in PM2.5 during and across wildfire events. Here, we evaluate the accuracy of two sets of high-coverage and high-resolution machine learning-derived PM2.5 data sets created by Di et al. and Reid et al. In general, the Reid estimates are more accurate than the Di estimates when compared to independent validation data from mobile smoke monitors deployed by the US Forest Service. However, both models tend to severely under-predict PM2.5 on high-pollution days. Our findings complement other recent studies calling for increased air pollution monitoring in the western US and support the inclusion of wildfire-specific monitoring observations and predictor variables in model-based estimates of PM2.5. Lastly, we call for more rigorous error quantification of machine-learning derived exposure data sets, with special attention to extreme events.

Health Impacts of Future Prescribed Fire Smoke: Considerations From an Exposure Scenario in California

“…Considine et al. (2023) recently reported regional differences in model performance in the Western US and noted that variability of PM 2.5 concentrations was underestimated in areas impacted by high concentrations of wildfire smoke. Therefore, burden rates associated with extreme smoke events (very high concentrations of wildfire or prescribed fire smoke exposure) may be higher than those estimated.…”

Data‐Driven Placement of PM2.5 Air Quality Sensors in the United States: An Approach to Target Urban Environmental Injustice

“…We subset the data set to encompass each city described in Section 2.3. While this PM 2.5 data set tends to underpredict PM 2.5 on high‐pollution wildfire days in the Western United States (Considine et al., 2022), these underestimates are not a concern for our analysis as we focus on urban areas in the central and eastern United States. We remove missing values from the data set by applying a mask to the spatial grid.…”