The Yellow River Basin (YRB) is confronted with significant conflicts
between water, food, and ecology. A thorough understanding of the human
stresses on eco-hydrological processes is essential for the sustainable
management of the YRB. To simplify the complex nature-human interaction
system, we developed an analysis framework based on vegetation change
and the Budyko hypothesis. The intra-annual vegetation change was
explored using phenological indicators, in addition to the inter-annual
vegetation change represented by annual maximum NDVI. K-means clustering
was used to identify seven patterns of vegetation change driven by
different ecological projects, agricultural alterations, and climate
change. To explore the hydrological responses to environmental changes
revealed by vegetation, a distributed attribution analysis of runoff
changes was conducted using the ERA5-Land dataset and an elasticity
method based on the Budyko hypothesis. The results show that the
hydrological-related landscape changed most in the semi-humid and
semi-arid areas experiencing revegetation, and the aridity increased
most in the upstream and downstream irrigation areas. Human-driven
landscape changes contributed to 44.1% - 60.7% of the local runoff
reduction within the YRB. Notably, agricultural changes intensified
drought, similar to revegetation, and meanwhile, the combined effect of
climate change and ecological engineering could magnify agricultural
vulnerability. We propose the adoption of drought-tolerant crop planting
and water transfer across watersheds to ensure water-food-ecology
security.