Evaluation of global warming impacts for different levels of stabilization as a step toward determination of the long-term stabilization target

Abstract

In order to estimate the benefit attributable to alleviating global warming for a kind of cost-benefit analysis of global warming mitigation, global warming impacts were quantitatively evaluated for a pathway of unmitigated CO 2 emissions and three pathways to stabilize the atmospheric CO 2 concentration at different levels, keeping unchanged the assumed conditions on population and GDP growths, although the GDP losses which will be caused due to the warming mitigation for the three stabilization pathways are taken into account. The evaluation results show that global warming will reduce the world total number of deaths caused by thermal stress owing to the large decrease in the cold-related deaths; it will increase the water stress in some regions, while it will decrease the stress in other regions; reductions in CO 2 emissions will decrease the probability of THC collapse and terrestrial biodiversity loss; and it will enhance an increase in the wheat production potential.

A comparative analysis of projected impacts of climate change on river runoff from global and catchment-scale hydrological models

“…Given the constraints of computational resources, we considered seven climate models and two hydrological models for each catchment. It can be argued that the application of seven climate models presents a reasonable representation of climate model structural uncertainty, given that previous climate change hydrological impact assessments have tended to apply a similar or lower number of climate models Hayashi et al, 2010;Prudhomme et al, 2003). The prior uncertainty from climate model structural uncertainty could be reduced by comparing GCM simulations of baseline climate with observations.…”

The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios

“…Oki and Kanae 2006;Alcamo et al 2007;Hanasaki et al 2008Hanasaki et al , 2013Rockstrom et al 2009;Hayashi et al 2010;Gerten et al 2011;Wada et al 2011). Some global water resources assessments use indices based on the relationship between withdrawals and available supplies, and others also incorporate the effects of withdrawals and other human interventions on the availability of water downstream.…”

“…Here, exposure to water resources stress is based on the simple indicator of average annual runoff per capita: a watershed is deemed to be exposed to water resources stress if watershed average annual runoff is less than 1,000 m 3 /capita/year. This is an arbitrary threshold, but one used in previous studies (Alcamo et al 2007;Hayashi et al 2010;Arnell 2004;Arnell et al 2011;Gosling and Arnell 2013). The simple indicator is used primarily to allow comparisons with previous assessments.…”

How Can the Context Affect Policy Decision-Making: The Case of Climate Change Mitigation Policies in the Greek Building Sector

“…Similarly, dynamic trends, such as changes in the prices of electricity and natural gas, can significantly alter the effectiveness of support instruments, inducing the need for their re-evaluation [1]. The need to better understand the uncertainties in the technological, economic, natural resource availability and political context of a country has been recognized as critical for the implementation of investments [2][3][4], as well as the evaluation of climate change mitigation policies [5,6]. Indeed, the "Guidance document on ex-ante evaluation" released by the European Commission [7] outlines that policy evaluators should investigate whether external parameters altering the intended results are identified.…”