Evaluation of GCMs historical simulations of monthly and seasonal climatology over Bolivia

Abadi, Azar M.; Oglesby, Robert J.; Rowe, Clinton M.; Mawalagedara, R.

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3952-y

Cited by 8 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Despite the model's ability to capture the large-scale patterns of observed precipitation, there are biases in the precipitation amount. The simulations overestimate the precipitation over the Andes, which could be related to the model's inability to resolve topography; consistent with most models (Abadi et al 2017). The percentage of precipitation bias over the State of São Paulo and at the continental scale at both the annual and seasonal timescales is presented in Table 1.…”

Section: Climatology Of Precipitation: Spatial and Temporal Distributionssupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Taken together, changes in VIMFC are dominated by changes in convergence with a contribution from the advection term confirming that reduced moisture convergence is the main driver of droughts, while changes in the advection term act to advect moisture away from SSP during the period of study. Abadi et al (2017) stated that strong moisture divergence represents regions with evaporation higher than precipitation; that is atmospheric moisture sources. The coincidence of the reduced VIMFC position with the region of reduced precipitation as indicated in Fig.…”

Section: Atmospheric Moisture Contentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous studies have highlighted the importance of the anticyclonic circulation to the South American monsoon system (e.g., Ramírez et al 1999;Garreaud et al 2003; Ferreira et al 2004;Marengo et al 2012;Insel et al 2013;Abadi et al 2017). These studies indicated that during DJF, the monsoon system is characterized by a well-established upper-level anticyclonic circulation over Bolivia (the Bolivian High; BH) in conjunction with a semi-permanent low pressure system (the Chaco thermal Low) over northern Argentina, strong lower-tropospheric convergence, and upper-level divergence.…”

Section: Atmospheric Circulation Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drivers and physical processes of drought events over the State of São Paulo, Brazil

et al. 2022

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The State of São Paulo, Brazil (SSP) was impacted by severe water shortages during the intense austral summer drought of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 (1415SD). This study seeks to understand the features and physical processes associated with these summer droughts in the context of other droughts over the region during 1961–2010. Thus, this study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of anomalously low precipitation over SSP and the associated large-scale dynamics at seasonal timescales, using an observation-based dataset from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and model simulation outputs from the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM3-GA6 at N216 resolution). The study analyzes Historical and Natural simulations from the model to examine the role of human-induced climate forcing on droughts over SSP. Composites of large-scale fields associated with droughts are derived from ERA-20C and ERA-Interim reanalysis and the model simulations. HadGEM3-GA6 simulations capture the observed interannual variability of normalized precipitation anomalies over SSP, but with biases. Drought events over SSP are related to subsidence over the region. This is associated with reduced atmospheric moisture over the region as indicated by the analysis of the vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, which is dominated by reduced moisture flux convergence. The Historical simulations simulate the subsidence associated with droughts, but there are magnitude and location biases. The similarities between the circulation features of the severe 1415SD and other drought events over the region show that understanding of the dynamics of the past drought events over SSP could guide assessment of changes in risk of future droughts and improvements of model performance. The study highlights the merits and limitations of the HadGEM3-GA6 simulations. The model possesses the skills in simulating the large-scale atmospheric circulations modulating precipitation variability, leading to drought conditions over SSP.

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Section: Climatology Of Precipitation: Spatial and Temporal Distributionssupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Atmospheric Moisture Contentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Atmospheric Circulation Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Drivers and physical processes of drought events over the State of São Paulo, Brazil

et al. 2022

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“…GCMs have become an important tool for producing spatially and temporally continuous long-term global products of energy balance components. Many studies have investigated the performance of SSR simulations from the GCMs at both global and regional scales [7][8][9][10][11]. For instance, Ma et al [9] found that the biases of the global average SSR simulations varied from 4.8 W m −2 to 11.9 W m −2 among the 48 fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models compared to the ground observations from 446 stations during 2000-2005.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of Bayesian Multimodel Estimation in Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation Simulation over High Latitude Areas

Zhang

et al. 2019

Remote Sensing

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Surface incident shortwave radiation (SSR) is crucial for understanding the Earth’s climate change issues. Simulations from general circulation models (GCMs) are one of the most practical ways to produce long-term global SSR products. Although previous studies have comprehensively assessed the performance of the GCMs in simulating SSR globally or regionally, studies assessing the performance of these models over high-latitude areas are sparse. This study evaluated and intercompared the SSR simulations of 48 GCMs participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) using quality-controlled SSR surface measurements at 44 radiation sites from three observation networks (GC-NET, BSRN, and GEBA) and the SSR retrievals from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System, Energy Balanced and Filled (CERES EBAF) data set over high-latitude areas from 2000 to 2005. Furthermore, this study evaluated the performance of the SSR estimations of two multimodel ensemble methods, i.e., the simple model averaging (SMA) and the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods. The seasonal performance of the SSR estimations of individual GCMs, the SMA method, and the BMA method were also intercompared. The evaluation results indicated that there were large deficiencies in the performance of the individual GCMs in simulating SSR, and these GCM SSR simulations did not show a tendency to overestimate the SSR over high-latitude areas. Moreover, the ensemble SSR estimations generated by the SMA and BMA methods were superior to all individual GCM SSR simulations over high-latitude areas, and the estimations of the BMA method were the best compared to individual GCM simulations and the SMA method-based estimations. Compared to the CERES EBAF SSR retrievals, the uncertainties of the SSR estimations of the GCMs, the SMA method, and the BMA method are relatively large during summer.

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“…Previous studies have highlighted the importance of the anticyclonic circulation to the South American monsoon system (e.g.,Ramírez al. 1999;Garreaud et al 2003;Ferreira et al 2004;Marengo et al 2012;Insel et al, 2013;Abadi et al 2017). These studies indicated that during DJF, the monsoon system is characterized by a well-established upper-level anticyclonic circulation over Bolivia (the Bolivian High; BH) in conjunction with a semi-permanent low pressure system (the Chaco thermal Low) over northern Argentina, strong lower-tropospheric convergence, and upper-level divergence.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers and Physical Processes of Drought Events Over the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Abatan

Tett

Dong

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The State of São Paulo, Brazil (SSP) was impacted by severe water shortages during the intense austral summer drought of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 (1415SD). This study seeks to understand the features and physical processes associated with these summer droughts in the context of other droughts over the region during 1961 – 2010. Thus, this study examines the spatio-temporal characteristics of anomalously low precipitation over SSP and the associated large-scale dynamics at seasonal timescales, using an observation-based dataset from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and model simulation outputs from the Met Office Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM3-GA6 at N216 resolution). The study analyzes Historical and Natural simulations from the model to examine the role of human-induced climate forcing on droughts over SSP. Composites of large-scale fields associated with droughts are derived from ERA-20C and ERAInterim reanalysis and the model simulations. HadGEM3-GA6 simulations capture the observed interannual variability of normalized precipitation anomalies over SSP, but with biases. Drought events over SSP are related to subsidence over the region. This is associated with reduced atmospheric moisture over the region as indicated by the analysis of the vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, which is dominated by reduced moisture flux convergence. The Historical simulations simulate the subsidence associated with droughts, but there are magnitude and location biases. The similarities between the circulation features of the severe 1415SD and other drought events over the region show that understanding of the dynamics of the past drought events over SSP could guide assessment of changes in risk of future droughts and improvements of model performance. In the model world, a modest human influence for the 2014/15 SSP meteorological drought is found. The study highlights the merits and limitations of the HadGEM3GA6 simulations. The model possesses the skills in simulating the large-scale atmospheric circulations modulating precipitation variability, leading to drought conditions over SSP.

show abstract

Evaluation of GCMs historical simulations of monthly and seasonal climatology over Bolivia

Cited by 8 publications

References 57 publications

Drivers and physical processes of drought events over the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Drivers and physical processes of drought events over the State of São Paulo, Brazil

Evaluation of Bayesian Multimodel Estimation in Surface Incident Shortwave Radiation Simulation over High Latitude Areas

Drivers and Physical Processes of Drought Events Over the State of São Paulo, Brazil

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