Evaluation of Future River Discharge Uncertainties in the Indochina Peninsula Simulated by Multi-Physics Ensemble Experiments Using Two-Way Anova

Abstract

This study focuses on evaluating uncertainties in river discharge projection in the Indochina Peninsula using nine ensemble experiments, which are combination of three different cloud convection schemes and three different sea surface temperatures (SSTs) change patterns. The nine river flow ensemble data were obtained using the outputs in the future climate (2075-2099) of the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM 3.2H under the high concentration RCP8.5 scenario. To clarify which factor of the use of different SST pattern changes or different cloud convection schemes contributes to the projected uncertainty on river discharge, the two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) without interaction between multiple cloud convection schemes and multiple SST patterns was applied to the nine ensemble projections. The results reveal that the uncertainty in the future river discharge projection in the Indochina Peninsula derived mainly from the differences in the convection schemes.