Evaluation of East Asian Meiyu from CMIP6/AMIP simulations

Tong, Mingjun; Zheng, Zhihai; Fu, Qiang

doi:10.1007/s00382-022-06218-z

Cited by 11 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 51 publications

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“…Indeed, a link between model bias and corresponding response has been shown to hold, for example, in the case of summer precipitation over Asia (Wilcox et al, 2015), global SST patterns and overlying rainfall changes (He and Soden, 2016), tropical rainfall (Chadwick, 2016) and circulation (Zhou and Xie, 2015) extratropical stationary eddies and their influence on tropical convection (Chen et al, 2018) and Arctic Ocean temperature (Park and Lee, 2021). Given that state-of-the-art climate models still suffer from large and persistent biases in simulating magnitude and distribution of the monsoon precipitation and circulation across Asia (Wilcox et al, 2020;Rajendran et al, 2022;Tong et al, 2022), it is certainly plausible for these biases to exert a sizeable control on the aerosol-induced monsoon changes. Climatological biases in climate models could lead to unrealistic projections of anthropogenic climate change and add further uncertainties, for example due to their possible non-stationarity (Krinner and Flanner, 2018).…”

Section: A Mechanism Linking Model Climatology To Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Asian aerosols on the summer monsoon strongly modulated by regional precipitation biases

Liu,

Bollasina,

Wilcox

2024

Preprint

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Abstract. Reliable attribution of Asian summer monsoon variations to aerosol forcing is critical to reducing uncertainties in future projections of regional water availability, which is of utmost importance for risk management and adaptation planning in this densely populated region. Yet, simulating the monsoon remains a challenge for climate models which suffer from long-standing biases, undermining their reliability in attributing anthropogenically-forced changes. We analyse a suite of climate model experiments to identify a link between model biases and monsoon responses to Asian aerosols, and the physical mechanism underpinning this link, including the role of large-scale circulation changes. The aerosol impact on monsoon precipitation and circulation is strongly influenced by a model’s ability to simulate the spatial distribution and temporal variability of the climatological monsoon winds, clouds and precipitation across Asia, which critically modulates the magnitude and efficacy of aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions, the predominant driver of the total aerosol response. There is a strong interplay between South and East Asia monsoon precipitation biases and their relative predominance in driving the overall monsoon response. We found a striking contrast between the early and late summer aerosol-driven changes ascribable to opposite signs and seasonal evolution of the biases in the two regions. A realistic simulation of the evolution of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is crucial to realise the full extent of the aerosol impact over Asia. These findings provide important implications to better understand and constrain the diversity and inconsistencies of model responses to aerosol changes over Asia in historical simulations and future projections.

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Section: A Mechanism Linking Model Climatology To Responsementioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Asian aerosols on the summer monsoon strongly modulated by regional precipitation biases

Liu,

Bollasina,

Wilcox

2024

Preprint

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“…Global climate models (GCMs) are a major tool for studying future climate change including extreme precipitation (i.e., Ban et al., 2015; L. Lin et al., 2016, 2018; O’Gorman & Schneider, 2009; Tong et al., 2022), severe storms (e.g., Del Genio et al., 2007), and lightning (Finney et al., 2014; Romps et al., 2014). It is predicted that extreme precipitation and the most severe storms will increase (e.g., Bao et al., 2017) and intensify (O’Gorman, 2015) in a warmer climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of Tropical Overshooting Deep Convection to Global Warming Based on Global Cloud‐Resolving Model Simulations

Kodama

2023

Geophysical Research Letters

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Tropical overshooting deep convections (ODCs) play a vital role in vertical transport of boundary layer pollutants, especially short‐lived species, to upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, with important implications for stratospheric ozone and climate. We use simulations from a global cloud‐system resolving model, Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmosphere Model (NICAM), to study ODC changes from historical period to the end of the 21st century. NICAM well reproduces Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission‐satellite observed ODC spatiotemporal patterns. The future occurrences of ODCs with cloud top height above 15.5, 16.9, and 18.4 km scaled by the global temperature increase will increase by 7%/K, 27%/K, and 90%/K, respectively, over ocean where the atmosphere is becoming warmer and wetter. The corresponding changes are −1%/K, 10%/K, and 37%/K over land where the atmosphere will become hotter but drier. Relative to tropical cold point tropopause height, ODCs will only change by 3%/K, with 6%/K over the ocean but −3%/K on land.

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“…Insufficient description of the SOD maintains an important source of model uncertainty (Elvidge et al., 2019; van Niekerk et al., 2020). The global climate models (GCMs) commonly underestimate (overestimate) precipitation over the southeastern China (Tibetan Plateau, TP) (Jiang et al., 2020; Kusunoki, 2018; Tong et al., 2022; Jiang et al., 2016; Xin et al., 2020; Alapaty et al., 2012; H. Chen et al., 2010; C. Zhao et al., 2020; Scinocca et al., 2016). The simulated precipitation biases of the GCMs can be clearly reduced by adopting the high‐resolution regional climate models (RCMs) (Gao et al., 2013; Gao et al., 2011; Yu et al., 2010; Bao et al., 2015; H. Yang et al., 2016; Ma et al., 2015; L. Zou & Zhou, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Insufficient description of the SOD maintains an important source of model uncertainty (Elvidge et al, 2019;van Niekerk et al, 2020). The global climate models (GCMs) commonly underestimate (overestimate) precipitation over the southeastern China (Tibetan Plateau, TP) (Jiang et al, 2020;Kusunoki, 2018;Tong et al, 2022;Jiang et al, 2016;Xin et al, 2020;Alapaty et al, 2012;H. Chen et al, 2010;C.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Sub‐Grid Turbulent Orographic Form Drag on the Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation Over China

Gu,

Huang,

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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Terrain has multi‐scale dynamic impacts on the climate. The Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4) has simulation uncertainty partly due to insufficient description of sub‐grid orographic drag (SOD). In this study, the sub‐grid turbulent orographic form drag (TOFD) scheme has been adopted into the RegCM4 to better describe SOD. Results show that the overestimated near surface wind over rugged areas leads to non‐negligible biases of the summer monsoon precipitation simulation over China in the original RegCM4, whose skill in simulating the summer precipitation over the monsoonal regions of China can be remarkably improved by adopting the sub‐grid TOFD scheme. Compared to the original RegCM4, the Taylor scores (root mean square error) of the precipitation simulated by the RegCM4 with the sub‐grid TOFD scheme are increased (decreased) by 4%, 13%, 11%, and 7% (8%, 5%, 30%, and 16%) over the southeastern China, the mid‐lower Yangtze River Basin, the Huang‐Huai Basin, and the northeastern China, respectively. The improved precipitation simulation mainly comes from the atmospheric circulation simulation improved by adopting the sub‐grid TOFD scheme, which leads to cyclonic (anti‐cyclonic) wind differences over the southeastern (northeastern) China from the boundary layer to the mid‐troposphere and thereafter vertical motion differences in the middle troposphere, further resulting in the variation of the simulated precipitation intensity (heavy to torrential) and the convective precipitation and consequential improvement of summer monsoon precipitation simulation. This study indicates that the dynamic impact of micro‐scale terrain plays an important role in the summer monsoon precipitation simulation.

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Evaluation of East Asian Meiyu from CMIP6/AMIP simulations

Cited by 11 publications

References 51 publications

Impact of Asian aerosols on the summer monsoon strongly modulated by regional precipitation biases

Impact of Asian aerosols on the summer monsoon strongly modulated by regional precipitation biases

Response of Tropical Overshooting Deep Convection to Global Warming Based on Global Cloud‐Resolving Model Simulations

Impact of Sub‐Grid Turbulent Orographic Form Drag on the Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation Over China

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