Evaluation of earthquake recurrences with different distribution models in western Anatolia

Coban, K.H.; Sayıl, Nilgün

doi:10.1007/s10950-019-09876-5

Cited by 21 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…The b-value is an important parameter that can be related to the crustal stress conditions and has been used effectively since 1940s to investigate seismicity of a region (e.g., Gutenberg and Richter, 1944;Scholz, 1968;Wiemer and Benoit, 1996;Enescu and Ito, 2002;Sayıl and Osmanşahin ,2008;Roy et al, 2011;Mesimeri et al, 2018;Özer et al, 2018;Çoban and Sayıl, 2019;Chorozoglou and Papadimitriou, 2019;Çoban and Sayıl, 2020;Taroni and Akinci, 2021). The b-value is related with the crustal heterogeneity, earthquake occurrence and volcanic activity of a region.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, Bayrak et al (2017) determined the temporal and spatial variations of Gutenberg-Richter parameter (b) and fractal dimensions (Dc) using the earthquakes with magnitude 2.0≤ Ms ≤7.7 between 1900 and 2010 for whole western Anatolia. Çoban and Sayıl (2019) investigated the Bodrum-Kos earthquake (21 July 2017, Mw=6.5) and calculated the Weibull, gamma, lognormal, and Rayleigh distribution models parameters by using the inner-event time of earthquake recurrences. They proposed that the conditional probability results contribute to seismic hazard assessment in the western Anatolia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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THE SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF b-VALUES OF THE AREA BETWEEN BODRUM AND FETHIYE DISTRICTS, THE SOUTH-WESTERN ANATOLIA, TURKEY

AKAR

Akkoyunlu

Bilim

2022

Mühendislik Bilimleri Ve Tasarım Dergisi

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The estimation of the variation of the b-value, which is frequency distribution of a magnitude given in an earthquake data set of any region, is important parameter for interpretation of tectonic mechanism and seismic hazard assessment of that region. There is an inverse correlation between stress and b-value. The magnitudefrequency relationship is described by the well-known the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the recent seismicity of the region between the Bodrum and Fethiye, the south-western Anatolia in Turkey. A total of 27357 earthquake data is taken into account in this study in the period between 2004 to 2020 with magnitude (Ml) larger than 2. The majority of focal depths of earthquakes are concentrated between 0 and 33 km. The b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter relationship was estimated by the maximum likelihood method in this study. The estimated b-values range between 0.5 and 2 in the study region. While the lower b-values (0.5-1) are located at the SE of the study area (mainly the Beydağları unit), higher values (1-2) are trending on the west-east direction along the fault zones. The highest b-values in the study area are possibly related with the brittle lower-mid crust, thermal regime, normal faults and young basins bounded by these faults.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

THE SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF b-VALUES OF THE AREA BETWEEN BODRUM AND FETHIYE DISTRICTS, THE SOUTH-WESTERN ANATOLIA, TURKEY

AKAR

Akkoyunlu

Bilim

2022

Mühendislik Bilimleri Ve Tasarım Dergisi

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“…The 30 October 2020 Samos Earthquake (Mw 7.0) ruptured the North dipping normal fault located North of the Samos island (Kiratzi et al, 2020Cetin et al, 2020. Previous time-dependent seismicity studies using probabilistic approaches suggested the region being a nest for a not-too-distant-future large earthquake (Karakaisis, 2000;Coban and Sayil, 2019). The ground shake felt in Turkey and Greece caused fatal casualties in the Metropolitan city İzmir and Samos Island.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of seismic triggering and failure time perturbations associated with the 30 October 2020 Samos earthquake (Mw 7.0)

SOPACI,

ÖZACAR

2021

Turkish J Earth Sci

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The 30 October 2020 Samos Earthquake (Mw=7.0) ruptured a north-dipping offshore normal fault north of the Samos Island with an extensional mechanism.Aftershocks mainly occurred at the western and eastern ends of the rupture plane in agreement with the Coulomb static stress changes. Mechanism of aftershocks located west of the rupture supported activation of the neighboring strike-slip fault almost instantly. In addition, a seismic cluster including events with Mw~4 has emerged two days later at the SE side of Samos Island. This off-plane cluster displays a clear example of delayed seismic triggering at nearby active faults. In this study, numerical simulations are conducted to mimic the instant and delayed seismic triggering observed after this event and evaluate resultant seismic cycle perturbations at adjacent faults and near İzmir, where amplified ground motions caused heavy damage. For this purpose, Coulomb static stress changes and seismic waveforms recorded by strong-motion stations are combined as static and dynamic triggers on a rate-and-state friction dependent quasi-dynamic spring slider model with shear-normal stress coupling. 1According to our results, earthquakes with Mw≤3.5 can be triggered instantly, and Mw ≥ 4 events noticeably advance in failure time. However, instant triggering occurs only when static stress loading is very high, and the fault is close to failing, explaining the delayed triggering observed SE of Samos Island. Simulations also revealed that the shear-normal stress coupling increases static loading but does not affect the dynamically controlled failure time advances observed at the end of the seismic cycle. After the earthquake, some of the faults adjacent to the rupture are more likely to fail, especially the long strike-slip fault segment capable of generating large earthquakes at the western edge. On the other hand, the Samos earthquake induced no significant dynamic triggering on far away faults near İzmir.

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“…Deprem tehlikesini belirlemek için deterministik ve olasılıksal yöntemler kullanılmaktadır [4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. İstatistiksel dağılım modelleri farklı bölgelerdeki deprem tehlikesini belirlemek için olasılıksal yöntemler içeresinde kullanılmıştır [13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. Deprem tehlike değerlendirme çalışmalarının ilk ve en önemli basamağı, bir depremin olasılığının doğru ve güvenilir olarak belirlenmesidir.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…Deprem tehlike değerlendirme çalışmalarının ilk ve en önemli basamağı, bir depremin olasılığının doğru ve güvenilir olarak belirlenmesidir. Ayrıca deprem olasılık hesaplamalarında, birden fazla istatiksel model sonuçlarının karşılaştırılması daha güvenilir ve doğru sonuç verdiği literatürdeki çalışmalarda belirtilmiştir [13][14][15][16][17][21][22][23]. farklı deprem kataloglarıyla kullanılmış ve şartlı olasılık değerleri hesaplanmıştır [13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23].…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Evaluation of the Conditional Probability of January 24, 2020 Sivrice (Elazığ) Earthquake

Coban

Sayıl

2020

Çukurova Üniversitesi Mühendislik-Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi

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Bu çalışmada dört farklı istatistiksel dağılım modeli (Weibull, Rayleigh, üstel ve log-normal dağılım modelleri) uygulanarak 24 Ocak 2020 Sivrice (Elazığ) depreminin şartlı olasılığı hesaplanmıştır. Bu hesaplamalar için, bölgede 1900 yılı ile 2019 yılları arasında meydana gelmiş M≥4,7 depremlerin tekrarlama periyotları kullanılmıştır. Modeller ile kullanılan veri arasındaki uyum ilişkisi üç farklı test kriteri (Olabilirlik değeri (lnL), Akaike ve Bayesian bilgi kriteri) ile değerlendirilirmiştir. Log-normal model, çalışma verisini en iyi temsil eden model olarak belirlenmiştir. Çalışma sonuçlarına göre Sivrice (Elazığ) depreminin şartlı olasılık değerleri (t=0 ve te=2 için); Log-normal modele göre %80, üstel modele göre %72, Weibull modele göre %70, Rayleigh modele göre %36 olarak hesaplanmıştır.

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Evaluation of earthquake recurrences with different distribution models in western Anatolia

Cited by 21 publications

References 44 publications

THE SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF b-VALUES OF THE AREA BETWEEN BODRUM AND FETHIYE DISTRICTS, THE SOUTH-WESTERN ANATOLIA, TURKEY

THE SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF b-VALUES OF THE AREA BETWEEN BODRUM AND FETHIYE DISTRICTS, THE SOUTH-WESTERN ANATOLIA, TURKEY

Simulation of seismic triggering and failure time perturbations associated with the 30 October 2020 Samos earthquake (Mw 7.0)

Evaluation of the Conditional Probability of January 24, 2020 Sivrice (Elazığ) Earthquake

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