Evaluation of Dam Overtopping Risk Based on Univariate and Bivariate Flood Frequency Analyses

Goodarzi, Ehsan; Ziaei, Mina; Shui, Lee Teang

doi:10.1007/978-94-007-5851-3_6

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…/s) 1965 12,76 1979 20,98 1993 33,95 2007 29,32 1966 14,54 1980 25,03 1994 23,37 2008 45,62 1967 21,83 1981 16,71 1995 34,80 2009 23,02 1968 21,89 1982 32,04 1996 31,70 2010 58,31 332,75 m olarak belirlenmiştir. Hazne su seviyesinin daha önceki çalışmalarda [16,17] olduğu gibi normal dağılıma sahip olduğu kabul edilmiştir. Son olarak su seviyesinin varyasyon katsayısı, COV, değeri 0,05 olarak alınmıştır.…”

Section: Beli̇rsi̇zli̇kleri̇n Anali̇zi̇ (Analysis Of Uncertainties)unclassified

Tanyeri̇ Baraji Örneği̇nde Barajlarin Taşkin Nedeni̇yle Üstten Aşilma Güveni̇li̇rli̇ği̇ni̇n Beli̇rlenmesi̇

Çalamak¹

2017

Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik-Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi

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The flood induced overtopping of dams is one of the most observed failure reasons in history. In this study, the overtopping reliability of Tanyeri Dam is evaluated in a probabilistic manner. To this end, flood hydrographs having two variables and initial water level of the reservoir are randomly generated and the probability of exceedance of the dam crest elevation is evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. Several scenarios, including the case that both the spillway and the bottom outlet are not working, are considered and their effects on the dam overtopping reliability are assessed. According to the results, Tanyeri Dam is found to be 100% reliable when its spillway operates during a possible flood having 10000-year return period. In addition, it is shown that the maximum reservoir level observed during a flood is directly dependent on the initial water level of the reservoir.

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Section: Beli̇rsi̇zli̇kleri̇n Anali̇zi̇ (Analysis Of Uncertainties)unclassified

Tanyeri̇ Baraji Örneği̇nde Barajlarin Taşkin Nedeni̇yle Üstten Aşilma Güveni̇li̇rli̇ği̇ni̇n Beli̇rlenmesi̇

Çalamak¹

2017

Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik-Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi

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“…While several examples of mathematical and probabilistic approaches used to evaluate the safety of dams can be found in the literature (Yanmaz & Gunindi, 2008) (Li, et al, 2011) (Goodarzi, et al, 2012) (Su, et al, 2015), in this contribution we decide to use the Bayesian Network (BN) since it has many advantages and it is an increasingly popular method for reasoning under uncertainty and modelling uncertain domains. For instance, in comparison with two most commonly used approaches, i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An elicitation process to quantify Bayesian networks for dam failure analysis

et al. 2021

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Bayesian networks support the probabilistic failure analysis of complex systems, e.g. dams and bridges, needed for a better understanding of the system reliability and for taking mitigation actions. Bayesian networks are useful in representing the interactions among system components graphically, while the quantitative strength of the interrelationships between the variables is measured using conditional probabilities. However, due to a lack of objective data it often becomes necessary to rely on expert judgment to provide subjective probabilities to quantify the model. This paper proposes an elicitation process that can be used to support the collection of valid and reliable data with the specific aim of quantifying a Bayesian Network, while minimizing the adverse impact of biases. To illustrate how this framework works, it is applied to a real-life case study regarding the safety of the Mountain Chute Dam and Generating Station, which is located on the Madawaska River in Ontario, Canada.

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“…Numerous research works on risk analysis of dam overtopping have been reported in the literature. As regards the uncertainties in overtopping risk analysis, the effects of uncertainties in flood, reservoir characteristics, outflow discharge, initial water surface level, wind velocity, dam height, and so on have been well investigated (e.g., [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13]). Regarding approaches for overtopping risk analysis, a variety of approaches have been applied, such as stochastic differential equations (e.g., [14]), bivariate copula functions (e.g., [15][16][17]), sequential uncertainty fitting method (e.g., [18]), Latin hypercube sampling (e.g., [19,20]), maximum entropy method (e.g., [21]), and Bayesian network (e.g., [22][23][24]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Overtopping Risk Analysis of Earth Dams considering Effects of Failure Duration of Release Structures

Liu

2020

Complexity

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For modern high earth dams, sufficient safety margin is considered in the designs of flood discharge capacity and dam crest elevation to prevent flood overtopping. However, for high earth dams which may induce catastrophic consequences, during their long operational period, extremely hazardous scenarios which could occur and threaten dam safety need to be considered. For the earth dams located in areas with intensive seismicity, there is a possible scenario that the release structures fail due to seismic landslides and gate failures caused by a severe earthquake when the flood begins to enter the reservoir. Thus, it is desirable to investigate the influence of failure duration of release structures on dam overtopping risk. Based on the Bayesian network, a methodology for overtopping risk analysis of earth dams considering effects of failure duration of release structures is proposed. The overtopping risk of the PBG earth-rockfill dam was analyzed to illustrate the methodology. The critical release structures which dominate the dam overtopping risk are identified. The dam overtopping risk is most sensitive to the failure duration of the spillway. The tolerable failure duration of the spillway is approximately 3 days, and when the failure duration of the spillway reaches 4 days, the dam overtopping risk drastically rises to an unacceptable level. The case study suggests that the proposed methodology could be helpful to analyze the influences of possible failure durations of release structures on dam overtopping risk and could facilitate preparation for emergency plans.

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Evaluation of Dam Overtopping Risk Based on Univariate and Bivariate Flood Frequency Analyses

Cited by 5 publications

References 17 publications

Tanyeri̇ Baraji Örneği̇nde Barajlarin Taşkin Nedeni̇yle Üstten Aşilma Güveni̇li̇rli̇ği̇ni̇n Beli̇rlenmesi̇

Tanyeri̇ Baraji Örneği̇nde Barajlarin Taşkin Nedeni̇yle Üstten Aşilma Güveni̇li̇rli̇ği̇ni̇n Beli̇rlenmesi̇

An elicitation process to quantify Bayesian networks for dam failure analysis

Overtopping Risk Analysis of Earth Dams considering Effects of Failure Duration of Release Structures

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