Evaluation of biogeochemical cycles in an ensemble of three state-of-the-art numerical models of the Baltic Sea

Eilola, Kari; Gustafsson, Bo; Kuznetsov, Ivan; Meier, H. E. Markus; Neumann, Thomas; Savchuk, Oleg

doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2011.05.004

Cited by 123 publications

(161 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…1e-l), although (very likely) the bias of the vertical stratification in the Gulf of Finland causes too low oxygen and too high phosphate concentrations in the bottom water. In the Arkona, Bornholm, and Gotland basins, nutrient dynamics are generally better simulated than in the northern Baltic Sea (not shown), in agreement with results by Eilola et al (2011).…”

Section: Evaluation Of the Control Periodsupporting

confidence: 85%

“…A thorough comparison of hindcast simulation results of the three biogeochemical models driven with regionalized ERA-40 re-analysis data (Samuelsson et al 2011(Samuelsson et al ) during 1970(Samuelsson et al -2005 was performed by Eilola et al (2011). Eilola et al (2011) concluded that the models capture much of the observed variability and that during 1970-2005, the response to changing physical conditions is simulated realistically.…”

Section: Baltic Sea Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Eilola et al (2011) concluded that the models capture much of the observed variability and that during 1970-2005, the response to changing physical conditions is simulated realistically.…”

Section: Baltic Sea Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The nutrient load scenarios are implemented in the Baltic Sea models as relative changes compared to the loads for the control period because the nutrient loads differ among the models. The major differences are due to the different assumptions on the bioavailability of phosphorus loads (Eilola et al 2011). …”

Section: Nutrient Load Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Baltic Sea models are started from initial conditions representing the beginning of the 1960s, following Eilola et al (2011). Due to model-specific spin-up periods, these initial conditions differ among the models.…”

Section: Initial Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Meier

Müller‐Karulis

Andersson

et al. 2012

AMBIO

113

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Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission 0 s (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.

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Section: Evaluation Of the Control Periodsupporting

confidence: 85%

Section: Baltic Sea Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Eilola et al (2011) concluded that the models capture much of the observed variability and that during 1970-2005, the response to changing physical conditions is simulated realistically.…”

Section: Baltic Sea Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Nutrient Load Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Initial Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Meier

Müller‐Karulis

Andersson

et al. 2012

AMBIO

113

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Simulated halocline variability in the Baltic Sea and its impact on hypoxia during 1961–2007

2013

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1] Salinity and halocline depth variations in the Baltic Sea during 1961-2007 are studied using a three-dimensional ocean circulation model. Significant interannual and interdecadal variations in the halocline depth are found, together with distinct periods characterized either by shallow (1970)(1971)(1972)(1973)(1974)(1975) or deep halocline (1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995). The model simulation indicates that the mean top layer salinity in the Baltic Sea is mainly controlled by the accumulated river runoff, while the mean below halocline salinity in the Baltic proper (which comprises Bornholm and Gotland basins) is more dependent on the low-pass filtered zonal wind stress, with cutoff period of 4 years, henceforth called the mean zonal wind stress. The halocline depth and stratification strength in the Baltic Sea are significantly affected by the mean zonal wind stress, while the impact of runoff is smaller. The ventilation of the halocline from bottom layers is stronger during the shallow and from surface layers during the deep halocline period. Due to changes in ventilation variations in halocline depth systematically affect bottom oxygen concentrations on seasonal and decadal, but not on interannual time scales. For instance, a deeper halocline reduces hypoxic (oxygen concentration in bottom water below 2 mL/L) and anoxic (anoxic conditions in bottom water) areas and increases the bottom oxygen concentrations in the Gulf of Finland but decreases them in the deeper parts of the Baltic proper. Model results suggest that due to undersampling during 1961-2007 mean hypoxic and anoxic areas calculated from observed profiles are underestimated by 41% and 43%, respectively.

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The air‐water CO₂ exchange of a coastal sea—A sensitivity study on factors that influence the absorption and outgassing of CO₂ in the Baltic Sea

2015

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In this study, the BALTSEM model is used to estimate how air‐water CO2 fluxes in the Baltic Sea respond to parameterizations of organic alkalinity (Aorg), gas transfer, and phytoplankton growth, and further to changes in river loads. The forcing data include the most complete compilation of Baltic river loads for dissolved inorganic and organic carbon (DIC and DOC) and total alkalinity (TA). In addition, we apply the most recent estimates of internal TA generation in the system. Our results clearly demonstrate how air‐water CO2 fluxes of a coastal sea depend on river loads of carbon, TA, and nutrients as well the freshwater import itself. Long‐term changes in DIC loads are shown to be compensated by corresponding changes in air‐water CO2 exchange. By adding Aorg, a discrepancy in the carbonate system calculations was removed, and the simulated net CO2 absorption of the system decreased by 11%. A new parameterization for cyanobacteria growth significantly improved the seasonal development of pCO2 in the central Baltic Sea, although the net effect on CO2 fluxes was below 5%. By applying either a linear, quadratic, or cubic wind speed dependence for gas transfer, the long‐term net CO2 exchange was adjusted by less than 5%. There is no clear indication that any one of these parameterizations provides a more accurate estimate of CO2 fluxes than the other two. Our findings are applicable in other coastal areas that are heavily influenced by river loads of TA, DIC, and DOC.

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Evaluation of biogeochemical cycles in an ensemble of three state-of-the-art numerical models of the Baltic Sea

Cited by 123 publications

References 58 publications

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Simulated halocline variability in the Baltic Sea and its impact on hypoxia during 1961–2007

The air‐water CO₂ exchange of a coastal sea—A sensitivity study on factors that influence the absorption and outgassing of CO₂ in the Baltic Sea

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Evaluation of biogeochemical cycles in an ensemble of three state-of-the-art numerical models of the Baltic Sea

Cited by 123 publications

References 58 publications

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Simulated halocline variability in the Baltic Sea and its impact on hypoxia during 1961–2007

The air‐water CO2 exchange of a coastal sea—A sensitivity study on factors that influence the absorption and outgassing of CO2 in the Baltic Sea

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Product

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The air‐water CO₂ exchange of a coastal sea—A sensitivity study on factors that influence the absorption and outgassing of CO₂ in the Baltic Sea