Evaluation of Bayesian Networks in Participatory  Water Resources Management, Upper Guadiana Basin, Spain

Zorrilla, Pedro; Carmona, Gema; Portillo, África de la Hera; Varela‐Ortega, Consuelo; Martínez‐Santos, Pedro; Bromley, John; Henriksen, Hans Jørgen

doi:10.5751/es-03278-150312

Cited by 74 publications

(54 citation statements)

References 32 publications

(45 reference statements)

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“…Similar examples using the same criteria can be found in Lamers et al (2010), Zorrilla et al, (2009), Rowe et al, (2001), etc. Their criteria were to assess LSC with an aim to include the public in policy making.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 85%

Stakeholder participation in CDM and new climate mitigation mechanisms: China CDM case study

Dong

Olsen

2015

Climate Policy

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 85%

Stakeholder participation in CDM and new climate mitigation mechanisms: China CDM case study

Dong

Olsen

2015

Climate Policy

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“…There is growing recognition of the contribution of 'citizen science' to promote public engagement in environmental issues (Dickinson et al, 2012), but also of the large role of tacit knowledge in the decision-making process. Incorporating such less-accessible knowledge into the decision making process has value, even though it is recognised that decisions are typically based on perceptions rather than absolute reality (Zorilla et al, 2010). This is unfortunate because perceptions may be based on limited experiences that falsely inform intuitive thinking, and downplay more objective data (base rates or prior probabilitiessee Kahneman, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Additionally, management plans often fail as they are developed without participation of local individuals (Cain et al, 2000). It is becoming increasingly obvious that stakeholder participation is critically important in successful water resource management (Zorilla et al, 2010). There is growing recognition of the contribution of 'citizen science' to promote public engagement in environmental issues (Dickinson et al, 2012), but also of the large role of tacit knowledge in the decision-making process.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…BNs provide a method of representing relationships between variables, even if the relationships involve uncertainty, unpredictability or imprecision (Batchelor and Cain, 1999). They are a useful tool for visualising complexity and engaging stakeholders (Zorilla et al, 2010). BNs have been used successfully as a participatory tool in representing complex issues in a number of environmental studies, and as a decision support tool to evaluate different management options (Ames et al, 2005;Lynam et al, 2010;Shenton et al, 2010;Stewart-Koster et al, 2010;Webb et al, 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Exploratory use of a Bayesian network process for translating stakeholder perceptions of water quality problems in a catchment in South Africa

Rivers-Moore

2016

WSA

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Water resource management is complex, and should ideally be a co-operative, stakeholder-driven problem-solving process. Bayesian networks (BNs) are one participatory tool being increasingly used to facilitate this process. The upper Mgeni catchment in the province of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, is a key water resource area with looming water quality problems. The high number of stakeholders involved in a catchment management forum provided an environment for testing the development of a BN showing relationships between water quality problems and stakeholders in this area. Through engagement with stakeholders at quarterly meetings during 2011, and collation and analysis of water quality time-series, qualitative and quantitative data were successfully translated into a BN for water quality improvement in the study area. The model demonstrated that certain water quality variables (for example, compliance of wastewater treatment works; increase in housing developments) were more likely to be the cause of problems than others (such as discharges from farm dams or accidental spills). The value of involving stakeholders in a co-operative process is highlighted, and it is argued that the robustness of such a model would be enhanced further if applied within a formal participatory approach using conditional probability values endorsed by all stakeholders.

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“…The research team offered the participants a water management background and collected their feedback. More importantly, the team carried out the participatory procedure in a fair way via a two-way 20 communication process (Rowe andFrewer, 2004, Charnley andEngelbert, 2005;Zorrilla et Hydrol …”

Section: Public Participatory Process In Bn Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a participatory Bayesian network model for integrating ecosystem services into catchment-scale water resources management

Xue

GUI

Lei

et al. 2016

Preprint

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Abstract. This paper proposes an ecosystem services-based integrated water resource management (IWRM) framework within which a participatory Bayesian network (BN) model that 15assists with the integration of IWRM is developed. The framework is divided three steps: (1) identifying water-related services of ecosystems; (2) analysis of the tradeoffs and synergy among users of water; and (3) ecosystem services-based IWRM implementation using the BN model. We present the development, evaluation and application of a participatory BN model with the involvement of four participant groups (stakeholders, water manager, water management experts, 20 and research team) in Qira oasis area, Northwest China. As a typical catchment-scale region, the Qira oasis area is facing severe water competition between the demands of human activities and natural ecosystems. We demonstrate that the BN model developed provides effective integration of ecosystem services into a quantitative IWMR framework via public negotiation and feedback. The network results, sensitivity evaluation, and management scenarios are broadly accepted by the 25 participant groups. The intervention scenarios from the model conclude that any water management measure remains unable to sustain the ecosystem health in water-related ecosystem services. Greater cooperation among the stakeholders is highly necessary for dealing with such water conflicts. In particular, a proportion of the agricultural water saved through improving water-use efficiency should be transferred to natural ecosystems via water trade. The BN model 30 developed is appropriate for areas throughout the world in which there is intense competition for water between human activities and ecosystems -particularly in arid regions.

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Evaluation of Bayesian Networks in Participatory Water Resources Management, Upper Guadiana Basin, Spain

Cited by 74 publications

References 32 publications

Stakeholder participation in CDM and new climate mitigation mechanisms: China CDM case study

Stakeholder participation in CDM and new climate mitigation mechanisms: China CDM case study

Exploratory use of a Bayesian network process for translating stakeholder perceptions of water quality problems in a catchment in South Africa

Development of a participatory Bayesian network model for integrating ecosystem services into catchment-scale water resources management

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