Evaluation and Scenario Prediction of the Water-Energy-Food System Security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt Based on the RF-Haken Model

Abstract

As an important agricultural production area in China, the Yangtze River Economic Belt has a large amount of water resources and rich types of energy. Water and energy resources are the supporting basis of food production, and the production and use of energy also need to consume a large amount of water resources. The three affect each other and are interdependent. Paying attention to the synergistic security of water-energy-food system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is important for regional economic development. This paper uses the pressure-state-response (PSR) model and selects 27 indicators to build an evaluation index system of the regional water-energy-food system. We use the random forest model to evaluate the security level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2008 to 2017, and the Haken model is employed to identify the driving factors that dominate the synergistic evolution of the system. Then we take the identified factors as the key control variables under each scenario and launch a scenario simulation of some provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2025. The results show that due to the improvement of water and energy utilization efficiency and the advancement of agricultural production technology, the level of water-energy-food security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt improved significantly from 2008 to 2017. Each province performs differently in different subsystems, with water resources security being better in the upper reaches and Zhejiang and Shanghai in the lower reaches, and food security being better in the middle and lower reaches. The level of energy security is high in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou in the upper reaches and Shanghai and Anhui in the lower reaches. According to the results of scenario prediction for Jiangsu Province and Hubei Province in 2025, implementing moderate management in accordance with current management objectives can increase the overall security of the system to level 4. The two provinces should focus on controlling water resources and energy consumption and improving the utilization efficiency of water and energy in agricultural production.

The coordinated development of manufacturing industry and logistics industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt: Empirical study by stages based on Haken Model

“…At the same time, the complex system composed of logistics industry and manufacturing industry shows the characteristics of openness, non-equilibrium state, nonlinear change and random fluctuation, which conforms to the dissipative structural characteristics of self-organization theory and meets the conditions of self-organization. Among them, the interaction of various variables, both competition and coordination, constitute the driving force of the co-evolution of the system [ 33 ]. The collaborative system realizes the synergistic effect under the leading role of order parameters.…”

Assessment and Prediction of Water Resources Vulnerability Based on a NRS-RF Model: A Case Study of the Song-Liao River Basin, China

“…Finally, the average value of the mean square error ( MSE ), normalized mean square error ( NMSE ) and coefficient of determination ( R-squared or R 2 ) of all test results is obtained. The related error test formula is as follows [ 77 ]: …”

“…Finally, the average value of the mean square error (MSE), normalized mean square error (NMSE) and coefficient of determination (Rsquared or R 2 ) of all test results is obtained. The related error test formula is as follows [77]: In order to verify whether the random forest regression model is better than other models in the accuracy of the research in this article, we will compare the neural network model (net package), decision tree (rpart package) and support vector machine regression model (e1071 package) with excellent nonlinear regression functions. After setting and debugging the appropriate parameters of each model, the training of the model is carried out.…”

Towards Circulating and Ecological Sphere in Urban Areas: An Indicator-Based Framework for Food-Energy-Water Security Assessment in Nagpur, India

“…Failure to effectively manage the resources in any of these FEW sectors can therefore lead to serious inefficiencies in FEW resource management. In recent years, there has also been a growing body of literature highlighting the close interlinkages and trade-offs between the three FEW sectors [1][2][3][4]. Several notable global agencies including, the World Economic Forum, World Water Forum, the Bonn 2011 Nexus Conference, and the World Water Week 2012, have called for an integrated approach to FEW security [3].…”