Evaluation and projection of precipitation in Pakistan using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations

Abbas, Adnan; Ullah, Safi; Ullah, Waheed; Waseem, Muhammad; Dou, Xin; Zhao, Chengyi; Karim, Aisha; Zhu, Jianting; Hagan, Daniel Fiifi Tawia; Bhatti, Asher Samuel; Ali, Gohar

doi:10.1002/joc.7602

Cited by 48 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 107 publications

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“…Meanwhile, IFAHP, CRITIC, and ICWGT used in this study for assessing flood risk could make results obtained quickly, which was helpful for the division of flood risk areas. In previous studies, Abbas et al (2022) found that under the high-forcing scenario (SSP5-8.5), the trend of extreme precipitation events in CPEC increased significantly, and the tendency of extreme precipitation events in summer also increased significantly, which is consistent with the conclusions of this article. In the verification of temperature simulation in Thailand (Suchada et al, 2021), the simulation results and accuracy of CNRM-CM6-1 were affirmed, so the accuracy of the simulation results based on CNRM-CM6-1 could be considered to be guaranteed.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…These models were commonly used by others. Abbas et al (2022) used these four models for climate simulation in Pakistan. The CESM2 simulations exhibit agreement with satellite-era observations of the climate mean state, seasonal cycle, and interannual variability that are among the closest coupled climate model in the present CMIP6 archive (Danabasoglu et al, 2020).…”

Section: Precipitation Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projection of Precipitation Extremes and Flood Risk in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

Sun

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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It is reported that the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor has been affected by extreme precipitation events. Since the 20th century, extreme weather events have occurred frequently, and the damage and loss caused by them have increased. In particular, the flood disaster caused by excessive extreme precipitation seriously hindered the development of the human society. Based on CRiteria Importance Through Intercriteria Correlation and square root of generalized cross-validation, this study used intensity–area–duration to analyze the trend of future extreme precipitation events, corrected the equidistance cumulative distribution function method deviation of different future scenario models (CESM2, CNRM-CM6-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and MIROC6) and evaluated the simulation ability of the revised model. The results showed that: 1) the deviation correction results of CNRM-CM6-1 in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP) 6 could better simulate the precipitation data in the study area, and its single result could achieve the fitting effect of the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble average; 2) under CNRM-CM6-1, the frequency of extreme precipitation events under the three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) presents interdecadal fluctuations of 3.215 times/10A, 1.215 times/10A, and 5.063 times/10A, respectively. The average impact area of extreme precipitation events would decrease in the next 30 years, while the total impact area and the extreme precipitation events in a small range would increase. Under the future scenario, the increase rate of extreme precipitation was highest in August, which increased the probability of extreme events; 3) in the next 30 years, the flood risk had an obvious expansion trend, which was mainly reflected in the expansion of the area of high-, medium-, and low-risk areas. The risk zoning results obtained by the two different flood risk assessment methods were different, but the overall risk trend was the same. This study provided more advanced research for regional flood risk, reasonable prediction for flood risk under future climate models, and useful information for flood disaster prediction in the study area and contributes to the formulation of local disaster prevention and reduction policies.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Section: Precipitation Data Setsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projection of Precipitation Extremes and Flood Risk in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

Sun

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…This increase in the northern region made it more vulnerable to climate change. Previous studies conducted in the region have shown similar temperature and precipitation indices increase in northern parts (Abbas et al, , 2014S. Ullah et al, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 63%

A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan

Ali,

Hamed,

Muhammad

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The study used a hybrid approach to evaluate the performance of 20 global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP6 in reproducing 20 extreme temperature and precipitation indices over Pakistan. This study first analysed the future simulations of extremes and discarded the GCMs whose projections fell outside the 95% confidence interval. The remaining GCMs' performance was evaluated using the Kling Gupta Efficiency‐based criteria. The changes in extreme climatic events in Pakistan were projected using the multi‐model ensemble (MME) median of the selected GCMs for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) in two future periods, 2020–2059 and 2060–2099. Four GCMs' showed inconsistency in projecting future climatic extremes and were discarded initially. The past performance of the remaining GCMs revealed EC‐Earth3‐Veg‐LR, GFDL‐ESM4, MRI‐ESM2‐0 and NOR‐ESM2‐MM to be effective in reproducing extreme indices for the historical period. The MME median of the selected GCMs showed a gradual increase in most of the temperature and precipitation extreme indices in the future periods for all SSPs across the country. Specifically, it showed a higher increase in daily maximum temperature (TXx) by 4.5–5°C, daily minimum temperature (TNn) by more than 4.5°C, consecutive days with a temperature higher than the 95th percentile (WSDI) by >160 days, one‐day maximum rainfall by 9–15 mm and days with precipitation above the 95th percentile by >50 mm in northern high‐elevated areas during 2060–2099 for SSP585. Similarly, a higher increase in TXx by 4.5–5°C, TNn by >4.5°C, WSDI by 140 days and tropical nights by 40–60 days was also found in the western arid region during 2060–2099 for SSP585. The study highlights that northern high‐elevated and western arid regions are at a higher risk of extreme temperatures and precipitation due to climate change.

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“…The annual precipitation will increase in the range of 3.5-12.8% in the mid-and late centuries in the region. The two studies that employed a fine-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) (∼25 km) and the latest CMIP6 have projected wetter summers in the UIB in the future (Ali et al 2021;Abbas et al 2022). Glaciers in the region will not be able to retain their mass despite the increase in precipitation because the increase in temperatures will make the current mass balance negative (Lutz et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the changes in the runoff and its components across the Upper Indus River Basin under climate change

Baig

Sayama

Yamada

2022

Journal of Water and Climate Change

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The runoff from the Upper Indus River Basin (UIB) is considered vital for sustainable water supply and agriculture. Climate change may alter the runoff and affect the availability of water. This study employs a hydrologic model and the climate projections of fine-resolution Meteorological Research Institute-Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM) (0.1875°) to assess the impacts of climate change in the future (2075–2099) on the flows in the UIB and its sub-basins. The simulations have shown satisfactory results compared to the observed ones. Furthermore, simulated snow-cover was compared with estimated snow-cover by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). According to the results, meltwater from glaciers contributes to about two-thirds of the annual runoff from the UIB. According to the projections, the future temperature will increase by 5.3 °C and annual precipitation will increase by 17% across the UIB. Despite this increase, the annual river flows were projected to decrease by 14% in the future because of depleted glacier melt. Furthermore, the detailed hydrologic responses in selected sub-basins showed different patterns in the future depending on the geographic locations and elevation. In an eastern sub-basin, flows will increase by 58% because of enhanced glacier melt and higher precipitation. Contrarily, two western sub-basins will experience the reduction of the flow by 30–70% because of the glacier retreat.

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Evaluation and projection of precipitation in Pakistan using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 model simulations

Cited by 48 publications

References 107 publications

Projection of Precipitation Extremes and Flood Risk in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

Projection of Precipitation Extremes and Flood Risk in the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

A novel approach for evaluation of CMIP6 GCMs in simulating temperature and precipitation extremes of Pakistan

Quantifying the changes in the runoff and its components across the Upper Indus River Basin under climate change

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