Evaluation and Projection of Gale Events in North China

Abstract

As an important weather extreme, gales greatly impact the air quality, agriculture, aviation, and renewable energy in North China. However, the spatial–temporal changes in gale events remain unknown in North China. In this study, using the ERA5 reanalysis with high spatiotemporal resolution and multi-model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), we investigate the temporal changes, including daily, seasonal and decadal variations in gale events in North China between 1980 and 2021, and we project the changes in gale events in the mid and late 21st century under two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). The gale events show large spatial heterogeneity in frequency, with a high frequency of >25 days/year in central Inner Mongolia province, northern Hebei province, and northwestern Beijing. Over the past four decades, the gale events in North China have shown a decadal reversal, with a decrease between 1980 and 2006 and an increase between 2007 and 2014. Furthermore, the gale events show strong temporal variations in North China. For seasonal variation, the gale events exhibit double peaks, with the largest peak in April and the smallest peak in October. For daily variation, the gale events show a single peak, with the maximum from 10:00 to 16:00 local time in North China. Multi-model simulations from CMIP6 reveal a continuous decreasing trend of gale events in North China by the end of the 21st century under both SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios relative to the historical period. Our results provide comprehensive support for planning aviation, renewable energy, and agriculture in the future.