Evaluation and intercomparison of Ozone and PM10 simulations by several chemistry transport models over four European cities within the CityDelta project

Vautard, Robert; Builtjes, P.; Thunis, Philippe; Cuvelier, Cornelis; Bedogni, Marco; Bessagnet, Bertrand; Honoré, Cécile; Moussiopoulos, Ν.; Pirovano, Guido; Schaap, Martijn; Stern, R.; Tarrasón, L.; Wind, Peter

doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2006.07.039

Cited by 233 publications

(144 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The O x bias in daily averages is similar to the daytime one, suggesting underestimation of nighttime titration. This is consistent with other studies using CHIMERE (Szopa et al, 2009;Van Loon et al, 2007;Vautard et al, 2007). Model benchmark ratings show a high skill score (0.78) while MNB and MNGE are +20.6 and 38.9, respectively.…”

Section: Evaluation Of the Reference Simulation (Ref)supporting

confidence: 82%

“…More recent studies have integrated advanced chemistry schemes capable of resolving the variability of pollutant concentrations at regional scale, which spans from several hours up to a few days, with chemistry transport models (CTMs) (Colette et al, 2012Knoche, 2006, 2007;Hogrefe et al, 2004;Katragkou et al, 2011;Kelly et al, 2012;Knowlton et al, 2004;Lam et al, 2011;Langner et al, 2005Langner et al, , 2012Nolte et al, 2008;Szopa and Hauglustaine, 2007;Tagaris et al, 2009;Zanis et al, 2011). Global models with a typical resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers and regional CTMs used at resolutions of a few tens of kilometers, and their parameterization of physical and chemical processes make them inadequate for modeling airquality at the urban scale (Cohan et al, 2006;Forkel and Knoche, 2007;Markakis et al, 2014;Sillman et al, 1990;Tie et al, 2010;Valari and Menut, 2008;Valin et al, 2011;Vautard et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate-forced air-quality modeling at the urban scale: sensitivity to model resolution, emissions and meteorology

Markakis

Valari

Perrussel³

et al. 2015

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

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Abstract. While previous research helped to identify and prioritize the sources of error in air-quality modeling due to anthropogenic emissions and spatial scale effects, our knowledge is limited on how these uncertainties affect climateforced air-quality assessments. Using as reference a 10-year model simulation over the greater Paris (France) area at 4 km resolution and anthropogenic emissions from a 1 km resolution bottom-up inventory, through several tests we estimate the sensitivity of modeled ozone and PM 2.5 concentrations to different potentially influential factors with a particular interest over the urban areas. These factors include the model horizontal and vertical resolution, the meteorological input from a climate model and its resolution, the use of a top-down emission inventory, the resolution of the emissions input and the post-processing coefficients used to derive the temporal, vertical and chemical split of emissions. We show that urban ozone displays moderate sensitivity to the resolution of emissions (∼ 8 %), the post-processing method (6.5 %) and the horizontal resolution of the air-quality model (∼ 5 %), while annual PM 2.5 levels are particularly sensitive to changes in their primary emissions (∼ 32 %) and the resolution of the emission inventory (∼ 24 %). The air-quality model horizontal and vertical resolution have little effect on model predictions for the specific study domain. In the case of modeled ozone concentrations, the implementation of refined input data results in a consistent decrease (from 2.5 up to 8.3 %), mainly due to inhibition of the titration rate by nitrogen oxides. Such consistency is not observed for PM 2.5 . In contrast this consistency is not observed for PM 2.5 . In addition we use the results of these sensitivities to explain and quantify the discrepancy between a coarse (∼ 50 km) and a fine (4 km) resolution simulation over the urban area. We show that the ozone bias of the coarse run (+9 ppb) is reduced by ∼ 40 % by adopting a higher resolution emission inventory, by 25 % by using a post-processing technique based on the local inventory (same improvement is obtained by increasing model horizontal resolution) and by 10 % by adopting the annual emission totals of the local inventory. The bias of PM 2.5 concentrations follows a more complex pattern, with the positive values associated with the coarse run (+3.6 µg m −3 ), increasing or decreasing depending on the type of the refinement. We conclude that in the case of fine particles, the coarse simulation cannot selectively incorporate local-scale features in order to reduce its error.

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Section: Evaluation Of the Reference Simulation (Ref)supporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-forced air-quality modeling at the urban scale: sensitivity to model resolution, emissions and meteorology

Markakis

Valari

Perrussel³

et al. 2015

Atmos. Chem. Phys.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Jonson et al, 2006;van Loon et al, 2007;Vautard et al, 2007;Gilliland et al, 2008;Zhang et al, 2009bZhang et al, , 2013Colette et al, 2011;Godowitch et al, 2011;Hogrefe et al, 2011;Zubler et al, 2011). It has been demonstrated that uncertain emission inventories, data assimilation approaches used in meteorology models, and initial/boundary conditions can influence dynamic evaluation of model-predicted changes in ambient air quality (Napolenock et al, 2011;Kang et al, 2012).…”

Section: A Baklanov Et Al: Online Coupled Regional Meteorology Chemmentioning

confidence: 99%

Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe: current status and prospects

et al. 2014

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Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. A. Baklanov et al.: Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in EuropeAbstract. Online coupled mesoscale meteorology atmospheric chemistry models have undergone a rapid evolution in recent years. Although mainly developed by the air quality modelling community, these models are also of interest for numerical weather prediction and regional climate modelling as they can consider not only the effects of meteorology on air quality, but also the potentially important effects of atmospheric composition on weather. Two ways of online coupling can be distinguished: online integrated and online access coupling. Online integrated models simulate meteorology and chemistry over the same grid in one model using one main time step for integration. Online access models use independent meteorology and chemistry modules that might even have different grids, but exchange meteorology and chemistry data on a regular and frequent basis. This article offers a comprehensive review of the current research status of online coupled meteorology and atmospheric chemistry modelling within Europe. Eighteen regional online coupled models developed or being used in Europe are described and compared. Topics discussed include a survey of processes relevant to the interactions between atmospheric physics, dynamics and composition; a brief overview of existing online mesoscale models and European model developments; an analysis on how feedback processes are treated in these models; numerical issues associated with coupled models; and several case studies and model performance evaluation methods. Finally, this article highlights selected scientific issues and emerging challenges that require proper consideration to improve the reliability and usability of these models for the three scientific communities: air quality, numerical meteorology modelling (including weather prediction) and climate modelling. This review will be of particular interest to model developers and users in all three fields as it presents a synthesis of scientific progress and provides recommendations for future research directions and priorities in the development, application and evaluation of online coupled models.

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“…These uncertainties can be estimated by the comparison of simulations obtained by different models and the same sets of observations. For instance, model simulations have been compared against ozone surface observations in Europe (Vautard et al, 2007 and in the United States (Solazzo et al, 2012b) in the context of the AQMEII (Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative). Ensembles of model simulations and their statistical combinations have also been evaluated against satellite observations for tropospheric NO 2 (Huijnen et al, 2010) and O 3 (Zyryanov et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional scale ozone data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter and the CHIMERE chemical transport model

et al. 2014

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Abstract. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been coupled to the CHIMERE chemical transport model in order to assimilate ozone ground-based measurements on a regional scale. The number of ensembles is reduced to 20, which allows for future operational use of the system for air quality analysis and forecast. Observation sites of the European ozone monitoring network have been classified using criteria on ozone temporal variability, based on previous work by Flemming et al. (2005). This leads to the choice of specific subsets of suburban, rural and remote sites for data assimilation and for evaluation of the reference run and the assimilation system. For a 10-day experiment during an ozone pollution event over Western Europe, data assimilation allows for a significant improvement in ozone fields: the RMSE is reduced by about a third with respect to the reference run, and the hourly correlation coefficient is increased from 0.75 to 0.87. Several sensitivity tests focus on an a posteriori diagnostic estimation of errors associated with the background estimate and with the spatial representativeness of observations. A strong diurnal cycle of both these errors with an amplitude up to a factor of 2 is made evident. Therefore, the hourly ozone background error and the observation error variances are corrected online in separate assimilation experiments. These adjusted background and observational error variances provide a better uncertainty estimate, as verified by using statistics based on the reduced centered random variable. Over the studied 10-day period the overall EnKF performance over evaluation stations is found relatively unaffected by different formulations of observation and simulation errors, probably due to the large density of observation sites. From these sensitivity tests, an optimal configuration was chosen for an assimilation experiment extended over a three-month summer period. It shows a similarly good performance as the 10-day experiment.

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Evaluation and intercomparison of Ozone and PM10 simulations by several chemistry transport models over four European cities within the CityDelta project

Cited by 233 publications

References 17 publications

Climate-forced air-quality modeling at the urban scale: sensitivity to model resolution, emissions and meteorology

Climate-forced air-quality modeling at the urban scale: sensitivity to model resolution, emissions and meteorology

Online coupled regional meteorology chemistry models in Europe: current status and prospects

Regional scale ozone data assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter and the CHIMERE chemical transport model

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