Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment

Soundharajan, B.; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Remesan, Renji

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.04.051

Cited by 54 publications

(33 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…This research characterises the climate change impact uncertainties linked to the planning of reservoirs utilising a methodology similar to that described by Soundharajan et al (2016). The main variations between the two studies are that a rainfall-runoff model is used to simulate the streamflow series rather than stochastic modeling that as used by Soundharajan et al (2016).…”

Section: Aim Objectives and Noveltymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aim Objectives and Noveltymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main variations between the two studies are that a rainfall-runoff model is used to simulate the streamflow series rather than stochastic modeling that as used by Soundharajan et al (2016). In addition, Soundharajan et al 2016 did not take into consideration the reservoir capacity-yieldreliability relationships, which have been considered here. Consequently, the key purpose of this study is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on basin hydrology by considering the impacts of the reservoir operational probability of failure and storage in the water resources system on a typical example reservoir, which is the Dokan multi-purpose dam located in northern Iraq.…”

Section: Aim Objectives and Noveltymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adaptation Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: a Case Study

Mohammed

Scholz

2017

Water Resour Manage

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Climate change and drought phenomena impacts have become a growing concern for water resources engineers and policy makers, mainly in arid and semi-arid areas. This study aims to contribute to the development of a decision support tool to prepare water resources managers and planners for climate change adaptation. The Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (The Water Balance Department of the Hydrological Bureau) hydrologic model was used to define the boundary conditions for the reservoir capacity yield model comprising daily reservoir inflow from a representative example watershed with the size of 14,924 km 2 into a reservoir with the capacity of 6.80 Gm 3 . The reservoir capacity yield model was used to simulate variability in climate change-induced differences in reservoir capacity needs and performance (operational probability of failure, resilience, and vulnerability). Owing to the future precipitation reduction and potential evapotranspiration increase during the worst case scenario (−40% precipitation and +30% potential evapotranspiration), substantial reductions in streamflow of between −56% and −58% are anticipated for the dry and wet seasons, respectively. Furthermore, model simulations recommend that as a result of future climatic conditions, the reservoir operational probability of failure would generally increase due to declined reservoir inflow. The study developed preparedness plans to combat the consequences of climate change and drought.

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Section: Aim Objectives and Noveltymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aim Objectives and Noveltymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Aim Objectives and Noveltymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Adaptation Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: a Case Study

Mohammed

Scholz

2017

Water Resour Manage

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“…Recent research in water resources (Srinivasan 2014; Adeloye et al 2016;Soundharajan et al 2016;) dependent on the CFSR dataset. For example, confirmed the CFSR data reliability by applying the dataset to evaluate the potential effect of evapotranspiration formulations at different elevations and climatic conditions on the RDI index.…”

Section: Climate Forecasting System Reanalysis Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal Hydrologic Alterations Coupled with Climate Variability and Drought for Transboundary River Basins

Mohammed

Scholz

Zounemat‐Kermani

2017

Water Resour Manage

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Climate change (CC) and drought episode impacts linked with anthropogenic pressure have become an increasing concern for policy makers and water resources managers. The current research presents a comprehensive methodology but simple approach for predicting the annual streamflow alteration based on drought indices and hydrological alteration indicators. This has been achieved depending on the evaluation of drought severity and CC impacts during the human intervention periods to separate the influence of climatic abnormality and measure the hydrologic deviations as a result of streamflow regulation configurations. As a representative case study, the Lesser Zab River Basin in northern Iraq has been chosen. In order to analyse the natural flow regime, 34 hydrological years of streamflow prior to the main dam construction were assessed. The Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) method has been applied to quantify the hydrological alterations of various flow characteristics. In addition, an easy approach for hydrological drought prediction in relatively small basins grounded on meteorological parameters during the early months of the hydrological year has been presented. The prediction was accomplished by implementing the one-dimensional drought examination and the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) for evaluating the severity of meteorological drought. The proposed methodology is founded on linear regression relations connecting the RDI of 3, 6, and 12 months and the streamflow drought index (SDI). The results are critical for circumstances where an early exploration of meteorological drought is obtainable. Outcomes assist water resources Water Resour Manage

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“…Reservoirs also require a significant amount of resources to plan, build and operate, with implications for long-term water supply costs and affordability (Wiberg and Strzepek 2005). Quantifying exploitable reservoir capacity is therefore crucial for strategic planning of water, energy and food supplies in the coming decades, particularly with anticipated population growth and exacerbating impacts on hydrological variability due to climate change (Boehlert et al 2015, Kundzewicz and Stakhiv 2010, Soundharajan et al 2016, Stillwell and Webber 2013, Vörösmarty et al 2009.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the potential for reservoirs to secure future surface water yields in the world’s largest river basins

Parkinson

Gidden

et al. 2018

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply, hydropower generation, flood control and recreation services. Yet reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-use activities and ecosystems. Anticipated population growth and development coupled with climate change in many regions of the globe suggests a critical need to assess the potential for future reservoir capacity to help balance rising water demands with long-term water availability. Here, we assess the potential of large-scale reservoirs to provide reliable surface water yields while also considering environmental flows within 235 of the world's largest river basins. Maps of existing cropland and habitat conservation zones are integrated with spatially-explicit population and urbanization projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to identify regions unsuitable for increasing water supply by exploiting new reservoir storage. Results show that even when maximizing the global reservoir storage to its potential limit (∼4.3-4.8 times the current capacity), firm yields would only increase by about 50% over current levels. However, there exist large disparities across different basins. The majority of river basins in North America are found to gain relatively little firm yield by increasing storage capacity, whereas basins in Southeast Asia display greater potential for expansion as well as proportional gains in firm yield under multiple uncertainties. Parts of Europe, the United States and South America show relatively low reliability of maintaining current firm yields under future climate change, whereas most of Asia and higher latitude regions display comparatively high reliability. Findings from this study highlight the importance of incorporating different factors, including human development, land-use activities, and climate change, over a time span of multiple decades and across a range of different scenarios when quantifying available surface water yields and the potential for reservoir expansion.

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Evaluating the variability in surface water reservoir planning characteristics during climate change impacts assessment

Cited by 54 publications

References 30 publications

Adaptation Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: a Case Study

Adaptation Strategy to Mitigate the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions: a Case Study

Temporal Hydrologic Alterations Coupled with Climate Variability and Drought for Transboundary River Basins

Quantifying the potential for reservoirs to secure future surface water yields in the world’s largest river basins

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