Evaluating the skill of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) for discharge simulation in sparsely-gauged basins in Nigeria

Abstract

Abstract. Predictive hydrologic modelling to understand and support agricultural water resources management and food security policies in Nigeria is a demanding task due to the paucity of hydro-meteorological measurements. This study assessed the skill of using different remotely sensed rainfall products in a multi-calibration framework for evaluating the performance of the mesoscale hydrologic Model (mHM) across four different data-scarce basins in Nigeria. Grid-based rainfall estimates obtained from several sources were used to drive the mHM in different basins in Nigeria. Model calibration was first performed using only discharge records, and also by using a combination of discharge and actual evapotranspiration, forced with different rainfall products. The mHM forced with CHIRPS produced reasonable Kling-Gupta efficiency KGE) results (0.5> KGE <0.85) under both calibration frameworks. However, constraining model parameters under a multi-calibration arrangement showed no significant discharge simulation improvement in this study. Results show the utility of the mHM for discharge simulation in data-sparse basins in Nigeria.